Reading the mind of Muslim voters

With most opinion polls conducted in recent months indicating that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is marching ahead of all other parties, the curiosity in everybody’s mind is which party Muslims will vote for in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Muslims are traditionally seen as Congress voters, though the last two decades have seen a change in their political preference, especially in states where regional parties have a strong presence. With Narendra Modi projected as the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, there is curiosity if the Congress would be able to mobilize Muslim voters more strongly in its favour. The support of the Muslim voter would be crucial for the good performance of the Congress in many states.

But to the great disappointment of the Congress, apart from the general mood of the people against the ruling coalition, what might damage it more in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections is a possible shift amongst Muslim voters away from the Congress towards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). This may happen more in constituencies where the Congress is in a bipolar contest against the BJP, and the AAP has entered the electoral contest as a viable political alternative. The AAP, besides its strong presence in Delhi and Haryana, has fielded many candidates in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. In these states, a large number of Muslims do not vote for the BJP, and it may not be very different in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. The only difference is that in these states, which saw a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress in the past, the presence of AAP candidates would provide a choice for Muslims between the Congress and the AAP. The way AAP and its leader Arvind Kejriwal are trying to woo Muslims, it would certainly create confusion in the minds of Muslim voters if they should vote for the Congress or AAP to defeat the BJP. AAP candidates may not be in a winnable situation, but both Congress and AAP would hope to maximize electoral gains by the way of mobilizing Muslims in their favour. This would ultimately result in a division of Muslim votes between the Congress and the AAP, thus benefiting the BJP. Such division of Muslim votes would severely damage the already depleted Muslim support base of the Congress in many states.

The challenge for the Congress is much stronger in states where there is a sizeable proportion of Muslim voters and regional parties are very strong. The Congress has already suffered the loss of its Muslim voter base at the hands of regional parties, as a large proportion of Muslims have voted for regional parties during the past few elections. A large number of Muslim voters have voted for the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal (52%), Samajwadi Party (27%) and Bahujan Samaj Party (18%) in Uttar Pradesh, for Rashtriya Janata Dal (30%) and for Janata Dal (United) in constituencies which witnessed contest between JD(U) and RJD, or between JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar. The Peoples Democratic Party and National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, and All India United Democratic Front in Assam also got sizeable votes amongst Muslims during the last few elections. It is only in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat or Delhi that Muslims voted for the Congress in sizeable proportions, which too is under threat in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. In all these states, more than 75% of Muslim voters had voted for the Congress.

Recent surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies hardly brings any good news for the Congress with regard to its Muslim support base. The support base of the Congress amongst Muslims seems to be threatened. In Delhi, a sizeable proportion of Muslims have shown inclination to vote for the AAP, which would be a big setback for the Congress. During the 2009 Lok Sabha election, the Congress had won all the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi and 78% of Muslim voters had voted for the party. The recently concluded assembly elections in Delhi did see a split in Muslim votes between the Congress and the AAP, which hurt the Congress badly. Though Muslims are not in very large numbers in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan or Gujarat, even in these states the Congress faces the challenge of keeping intact its Muslim support base. Not only do we witness a shift of Muslims towards the AAP, even the BJP seems to be more acceptable to Muslim voters now compared with the past. All this would mean advantage BJP during the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, of the 83 Lok Sabha seats (including 25 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, 19 in West Bengal, eight each in Kerala and Assam each, and six each in Bihar and Jammu and Kashmir) where at least every fifth voter is a Muslim, Congress won 30 seats while BJP won 14. A split of the Muslim vote would severely damage the prospects of the Congress, and the party may lose many of these seats. The loss for the Congress would come mainly from Uttar Pradesh where the Congress had won seven such seats which had more than 25% Muslim voters. The BSP and SP, which had won seven and five Lok Sabha seats, respectively, may also suffer loss due to the split of the Muslim vote in Uttar Pradesh between the three political parties. All this would by default give advantage to the BJP. Difficult times for the Congress in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Sanjay Kumar is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

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