The limitations of intelligence analysis
The limitations of intelligence analysis
As a small boy growing up in Delhi, I remember sleeping out in the terrace during summers. During those nights, my father would often point out the constellations and teach me how to identify them. The Orion, Big Dipper, Cassiopeia and the Indian variants such as the Saptarishi. As a kid, it seemed to me that if I stared at the sky long enough, I could pretty much imagine any shape I wanted to. The business of intelligence is a bit like that. If you stare long enough at events that have passed, you could always come up with the question—why didn’t we see that happening? But there are some very good reasons why we don’t see obvious events coming.
The Pearl Harbor, the Bay of Pigs, fall of the Berlin Wall, the Yom Kippur war, 9/11 or the Mumbai terror attacks—the list goes on. These seem to have been totally predictable events (world changing events at that)—after the fact—and yet experienced analysts, political observers, intelligence agencies and even powerful governments seem to have been completely blindsided by them. Businesses are no better, by the way. Established business leaders routinely fail to spot or leverage disruptive technologies, paradigm shifts or changing customer preferences. The fact that the Googles, the iPhones and the Dells of the world have come and displaced market leaders in an environment where the facts were apparently for all to see and use, proves that developing intelligence is not as easy as just having all the information.
One of my favourite examples is an incident of failure of intelligence taught in military curriculums. The story goes something like this. In 1967, Israel won the six-day war against half-a-dozen countries. This victory came with the price of humiliated and belligerent enemies and a very volatile neighbourhood. While there were sporadic periods of peace, there was underlying tension with Egypt vowing revenge and retribution. From 1972, the then president Anwar Sadat began gearing up in earnest in preparing Egypt’s armed forces. Acquisition of weapons, step-up of training and reconnaissance, buttressing of defences and repositioning of artillery were all signs that something major was afoot.
Also Read Raghu Raman’s earlier columns
Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!