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Business News/ Opinion / Online-views/  The BJP needs to look within
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The BJP needs to look within

The overall downward trend in its electoral fortunes through the past decade is manifestly clear

The deeper philosophical question over the party’s ideological direction of travel still remains unresolved though: What sort of centre-right party does the BJP seek to become? Photo: HTPremium
The deeper philosophical question over the party’s ideological direction of travel still remains unresolved though: What sort of centre-right party does the BJP seek to become? Photo: HT

The general election is still just over six months away but voters might already be forgiven for experiencing a degree of electoral fatigue. The shrillness of the political tone across the spectrum suggests that a long-drawn battle lies ahead. That is a prospect the United Progressive Alliance government has grudgingly acknowledged. It is clear that seeking a third successive term in office shall be a difficult exercise. A spate of scandals during its tenure has led to an undeniable loss of public credibility. To make matters worse, inflationary pressures continue to grip the economy. Despite the sluggishness of the government, any signs of triumphalism from the benches of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at this stage would be premature.

Early evidence that the BJP is growing in confidence has been on offer over the past few weeks with its carefully timed announcement about building a colossal statue of Sardar Patel in Gujarat. Intended as a tribute to a strong-willed and somewhat unsung architect of modern India, the Statue of Unity is meant to be taller than the Statue of Liberty and is expected to cost approximately 2,000 crore. Narendra Modi’s muscular appropriation of the Sardar’s legacy has clear political overtures. Yet what would Sardar Patel have made of this grandstanding and stupendous expenditure? To be sure, the BJP’s ability to mobilize its grassroots cadre has yet again been amplified by this debate. But more damagingly, so has the party’s tendency to be pre-occupied by an emotive cause that often bears little or no resemblance to the daily concerns of voters.

The truth is that the BJP has an enormous political mountain to climb before it can recapture power. It is now well over a decade since the party was elected as the largest entity in the Lok Sabha. Core supporters may nostalgically reminisce over Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s National Democratic Alliance regime but that cannot obscure the more prosaic reality that has been the party’s fate since those days. In 1999, the BJP was euphoric with the success of being the largest party in the 13th Lok Sabha with 182 seats. That gave way to the slide in 2004 with 138 seats in the 14th Lok Sabha and a position on the opposition benches. An even sharper spiral came in the 2009 general election with the party reduced to 116 seats in the Lok Sabha. The overall downward trend in its electoral fortunes through the past decade is manifestly clear.

Notwithstanding the Congress party’s deficiencies, the BJP has several political challenges of its own to address too. Prime among these will be the task of revitalizing its prospects in Uttar Pradesh where the party has been outmanoeuvred by its rivals through the last decade. Given the crucial importance of a state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, languishing with a desultory 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh in successive general election has undoubtedly dented the party. Reversing a failure to connect with voters across Uttar Pradesh’s vast hinterland assumes a critical challenge that the party can ill-afford to ignore.

Other strategic issues cannot be overlooked either. Three of these deserve special mention. First, the middle classes deserted the party at the last general election, having grown weary with its penchant for symbolic excesses rather than a core focus on economic development and governance. Nowhere was this haemorrhaging of support more evident than Delhi where the party failed to win even a single Lok Sabha seat.

Second, in a country where a majority of the population is under the age of 35, the absence of youthful faces on the BJP front bench stands out as a glaring omission. This inability to come to terms with the inevitable political representation that India’s demographic dividend necessitates does the BJP no favours. Finally, the party cannot risk alienating existing allies. Recall the fallout with the Biju Janata Dal before the 2009 general election that cost the BJP dearly. Rebuilding bridges with erstwhile partners—particularly in the south—and seeking newer alliances will be crucial too.

The deeper philosophical question over the party’s ideological direction of travel still remains unresolved though: What sort of centre-right party does the BJP seek to become?

The road ahead may seem arduous but if the BJP needs inspiration, a Tory revival in Britain offers comparative benefits. Not so long ago, the Tory party was confined to the political wilderness. It took three electoral defeats for the Tories to accept the need for change. David Cameron’s leadership took on that challenge by steering the Tory ship deliberately towards a different shore. Cameron’s strategy of de-contaminating the party by expanding its social base was suitably blessed by the voters at the ballot box. Across the Atlantic, Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey—historically a Democrat stranglehold—also holds some hope for his party with his bipartisan approach.

Back to India though, if the BJP were to reinvent itself into a socially inclusive mercantile party with a commitment to individual liberty and the promotion of enterprise, then it may find that electoral rewards are within its reach. As the bard famously noted: “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune." It is an aphorism the BJP would do well to heed. Venturing beyond its core base won’t be easy. But that is the real challenge which lies ahead for the party.

Rishabh Bhandari is a lawyer based in London. He also writes on subjects that include British and Indian social, political and economic affairs.

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Published: 11 Nov 2013, 05:28 PM IST
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