Get Instant Loan up to ₹10 Lakh!
The one chart that explains why Congress lost the rural vote
Real rural wage growth fell sharply in the months leading up to the 2014 elections because of high rural inflation, breeding discontent
The Congress party’s decimation in urban constituencies in 2014 is well-known but what is even more striking is the sharp decline in its rural vote share. Between 2009 and 2014, the rural vote share of the Congress party fell nearly seven percentage points to 19% despite a slew of measures initiated by the party in the name of rural development while it was in power.
The accompanying chart explains why the performance of the Congress differed so dramatically in 2009 and in 2014 in rural India. The first big boom in real rural wages came just ahead of the 2009 general elections. The boost came both from natural sources such as the rapid growth in construction and demand for rural labour as well as artificial ones such as the rural employment guarantee scheme. Rural wage growth peaked just at the right time for the ruling party in 2009.
The second boom came just after the first, with rural wage growth peaking by early 2012. Since then, rural wage growth has fallen sharply, dampening expectations and turning aspirations into frustrations very quickly. After witnessing double-digit growth in 2011 and 2012, rural labourers saw their wages grow only 3% on average in 2013.
The preponderance of short-term palliatives to address rural discontent and the absence of long-term investments to boost rural growth sustainably meant that the rural growth engine ran out of steam well ahead of the 2014 elections even as inflation continued to bite. The consequent decline in real rural wages seems to have cost the party dearly.
Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Business NewsOpinionThe one chart that explains why Congress lost the rural vote
First Published:4 Jun 2014, 11:08 AM IST
- Top Gainers
- Top Losers
- 52 Week High