BackCOP21: Whither consensus!
The fineprint in the much-touted climate change agreement has very little legally binding for the parties to adhere
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Notwithstanding the bonhomie between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Barack Obama post COP21 in Paris, the fineprint in the much-touted agreement has very little legally binding for the parties to adhere. All that countries are expected to do is to put out their planned emission reduction targets to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change every five years. There is neither an obligation to set ambitious goals nor do they have to achieve them. Article 28 gives countries an exit clause to get out of the agreement by giving a written notification; any party that withdraws from the convention shall be deemed having withdrawn from this COP21 agreement. Because there are no penalties for non-compliance, there is very little incentive for any party to depart from the convention in the foreseeable future.
All international agreements need to be ratified by each country’s legislature, and there is no guarantee that local and domestic politics will not kick in and many of them may not ratify them at all. If not ratified by the member’s legislature, the country executives cannot do much other than just simply talk platitudes on international fora for the sake of face-saving. One has to hope against hope for the sake of posterity, and all countries will behave responsibly to save the planet for future generations.
It is widely accepted that a 2 degree rise in temperature is unachievable without aggressively cutting down on carbon emission by the end of this century. Aspiration is now set at a 1.5 degree rise in temperature, largely at the behest small island nations who stand threatened with their disappearance due to rising sea levels, and this had no effect on the final agreement in Paris. Sea levels have been raising by one, two, or three millimeters a year depending on whose data you believe. The vulnerability of coastal regions around the world will no doubt steadily increase. Floods, hurricanes and typhoons and excessive rain will continue from time to time as it happened in Chennai just recently. Countries will have to get ready to alleviate the sufferings and losses on their own right now and in the near future. Rich countries will not help, no matter what. This is where India needs to wake up for drafting a national mission for coping with climate change on its own now and even find resources to tackle it.
The UK seems to be the only country whose committee on climate change that sets five-yearly carbon budgets has advised that more than half of new cars would have to be powered by electricity within 15 years, and by 2030s, almost all electricity would have to come from low-carbon sources, such as wind, solar, biomass and nuclear. If electric cars have to have any impact, the non-carbon or low-carbon sources of electricity have to come within 25 years. It is also becoming clear that solar and wind energy do little to reduce emissions when there is a fair mix of sources generating power. This should lead to the obvious choice of new technology and nuclear power. Nuclear power is another contentious source for the environmental lobby in India, and although India is still going ahead to establish more nuclear power plants, the going will not be easy. For India to successfully establish nuclear power plants as planned and as is necessary, it becomes imperative for all Indian political parties to agree to this one point common agenda for the nation. However, by looking at the state of political affairs of domestic politics at the moment, it will remain a dream. India will have to engage the environmental lobby with scientific and technologically reasoned arguments to bring them on board. Consensus on new research and more nuclear power is good a news for all, but needs lots of convincing to do. This move augurs well as it has the potential to actually move away from fossil fuels. To the extent all these developments are not convincing enough for climate alarmists, anything that provides a secure and affordable energy future must bear good news.
During COP21, the price of Europe’s carbon fell to just over €8, and is not expected to rise significantly any time soon. Energy company share prices took a dive more because of fall in crude oil prices than anything that happened in Paris, but have picked up slightly in recent days. Expectations that the signatories will come up with concrete actions on COP21 agreement should meet lots of disappointment. On balance, we may see a shift to nuclear and R&D on new energy generation, protection of vulnerable communities and energy savings and storage. India, like all other countries, must choose a pragmatic and yet environmentally responsible path to energy development. Any euphoria that COP21 will trigger the end of fossil fuels, will be like Mark Twain’s eulogy!
Shanthu Shantharam is an adjunct professor of biotechnology at the University of Maryland-Eastern Shore. He also teaches plant biotechnology and biotechnology innovation management at Iowa State University, and is former executive director of the agricultural group of India’s Association of Biotechnology-led Enterprises. He was a biotechnology regulator with the US department of agriculture.
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