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More than anything else, the Delhi election shows that people matter in politics. Markets and political machinery can follow
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Few political events can rival the intriguing glory of an Indian election. Despite flaws entrenched in deep class and caste divisions, an Indian election is when the world gets to know first hand what the ordinary Indian thinks—of their leaders, their political parties and the direction their nation is taking.
That is why an Indian election is watched so keenly around the world by governments, political scientists, companies and, of course, rating agencies that follow the market.
One lesson they could all take from the results of the Delhi assembly election (it is among the biggest sweeps in India’s electoral history) is that India’s modern capital shines a light on the political future of this nation in terms of how parties behave and how voters respond. Vice versa, too, in how politicians can listen to and articulate people’s aspirations.
Delhi, far more than before, is India in a microcosm. It could also become its political barometer. As India becomes more and more urban in its demographic and economic make up, there is a gradual change taking place in people’s attitudes, too. This development in India’s mental make-up is set to magnify as and when the nation becomes a global manufacturing hub, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi desires.
The people of Delhi, drawn from all corners of the nation to this engine of economic growth, have rejected old-style Indian politics. In this election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Modi and party president Amit Shah pressed into action the services of their party’s formidable machinery—beginning with the muscular foundation of its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Dozens of cabinet ministers, scores of members of Parliament (MPs) and the chief ministers of several BJP-ruled states were thrown at the voting public of Delhi, all to try and take on the threat from an outfit that can no longer be called tiny or ramshackle or bedraggled, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
It was an election marked by contrasts. One of the most spectacular images from it was the moment when Modi arrived at a mammoth public rally in east Delhi. After keeping his audience waiting—a standard election practice—on a day of hectic electioneering, the Prime Minister flew in by helicopter, presenting television viewers with the image of a chopper hovering over a crowd of perhaps hundreds of thousands.
The other national party, the Congress, presented a similar campaign picture, as its leader, Rahul Gandhi, plunging late into the hustings, took out a massive roadshow, corralling the faithful around a festooned truck carrying the party’s anointed leader. This was how campaigns used to be run in India.
By contrast, AAP began its work months ago by holding jan sabhas—people’s assemblies—where leaders gathered the views of voters on important issues facing Delhi, including the Jan Lokpal Bill which seeks to give Delhi its first anti-corruption ombudsman, women’s security and the prices of electricity and water. The AAP leader, former taxman and anti-corruption campaigner, Arvind Kejriwal, himself addressed no fewer than 110 of these meetings.
According to one AAP leader, these assemblies cost only around ₹ 20,000 each to set up, but help to draw in around 2,000-3,000 people, all potential supporters. That’s not only value for money politics, but it also highlights an important ingredient of politics—process.
The Delhi election also shows what won’t work in Indian politics as its electoral process steps up in tandem with rapid economic and social change: calling your opponent names won’t work; displays of arrogance won’t work; loud hectoring speeches, playing the religious card, minds-made-up policies won’t work; turning a deaf ear never worked in any case.
The AAP harbours national ambitions. It would dearly love to send Modi and Shah back to their home state of Gujarat, but it is held back by its weaknesses. For all its giant-slaying, it remains tiny in comparison with the BJP and the Congress. “We want to put in the kind of work we have put in Delhi all over the country. But we do not have that kind of organizational depth everywhere else," the party’s chief ideologue, Yogendra Yadav, told a news channel on Tuesday amid scenes of jubilation at the party’s headquarters.
It is clear that Modi and Shah, too, recognize AAP’s national ambitions. Yadav pointed out that it was Modi who told campaign rallies that the world was watching the Delhi elections, and that the way Delhi thought influenced the nation’s thinking. “They targeted us," said Yadav.
Analysts say that given the deeply personal remarks (Kejriwal was called an anarchist, anti-national and a Maoist sympathizer) that characterized the campaigning, it is all the more important for the central government led by Modi to dust off the humiliation, rise to the occasion and work in a collaborative manner with the new Delhi government.
The state government does have a substantial revenue surplus in its budget of ₹ 40,000 crore, according to Meera Sanyal, a former top executive with HSBC Bank who left her job to join the AAP. How the central government reacts is important to calming the markets, helping the new party fulfil its campaign pledges, and for giving content to India’s federal structure.
AAP has managed to fill a vacuum created in the centre-left of India’s political spectrum by the departure of the Congress at the close of a long stint—it ruled continuously at the centre for 10 years and in Delhi for 15. Whether AAP has the appetite, or even the skills and wherewithal at the moment, to take its fight to the national stage (several regional parties have reached out to it), remains to be seen.
On the one hand, it must focus on the task at hand—work to end crony capitalism in Delhi’s politics, give India a smart and modern capital city and legislate to create an anti-corruption ombudsman. On the other, it must seize the moment.
More than anything else, the Delhi election shows that people matter in politics. Markets and political machinery can follow.
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