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Business News/ Politics / Policy/  Exit polls: Advantage BJP in assembly elections
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Exit polls: Advantage BJP in assembly elections

Exit polls predict outright wins for BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and the edge in a close finish in Delhi, Chhattisgarh

If the outcome predicted by the surveys does come to pass, it will give BJP, which suffered back-to-back defeats in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, a major boost. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/ MintPremium
If the outcome predicted by the surveys does come to pass, it will give BJP, which suffered back-to-back defeats in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, a major boost. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/ Mint

New Delhi: If exit polls are to believed, the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has wrested the political momentum away from the Congress party.

If proven correct, the outcome would point to a critical trend less than six months before the general election.

Late on Wednesday, several exit polls projected that BJP would score an outright win in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and hold the edge in a close finish in Delhi and Chhattisgarh.

Significantly, the exit polls also project a spectacular debut for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, where the election was held on Wednesday.

Five states, including Mizoram, took part in this round of state elections. Counting of votes in Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will take place on 8 December; in the case of Mizoram, it will be on 9 December.

If BJP does indeed win the four states, the outcome is likely to boost the party’s morale and the stature of its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi—who has been actively involved in the campaign, particularly in Delhi and Rajasthan.

It will mean introspection time for the Congress, whose political footprint would have shrunk further with the loss of Rajasthan and Delhi.

At least two surveys have predicted a clear victory for BJP in all four states where the vote counting will take place on Sunday. Chhattisgarh voted in two phases on 11 November and 19 November, Madhya Pradesh on 25 November, Rajasthan on 1 December and Delhi on 4 December. Mizoram voted on 25 November.

If the outcome predicted by the surveys does come to pass, it will give BJP, which suffered back-to-back defeats in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, a major boost and help paper over internal differences—a major impediment in its efforts to mount a credible challenge to the Congress.

This will also help BJP to keep its alliance intact and enhance the prospect of attracting more partners. At the same time, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which returned to power with a stunning victory in 2009, may have to deal with uneasy political partners and even from its own rank and file.

UPA has been facing flak for a series of corruption scandals, its failure to contain inflation and for its handling of the economy.

Political observers attributed the exit poll projections to strong anti-incumbency against UPA becoming a liability for the state units of the Congress. At the same time, the personal popularity of BJP chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh gave the main opposition party an additional edge.

Balveer Arora, chairman of the Centre for Multilevel Federalism, a New Delhi-based think tank, said high inflation was one factor that had gone against the Congress in the states. “If there is no jump in their tally or the vote share from the last election, it can’t be said that there is a wave in favour of the incumbent chief minister," Arora said.

Although the state elections were fought on local issues and the performance of the state governments, experts believe that Narendra Modi was also a factor.

Bidyut Chakrabarty, a political science professor in Delhi University, said: “(The) Modi factor will be important at the national level, not at the state level so much. The performance of the chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and the development scheme initiated by them have benefited them in the elections. In Rajasthan, it was anti-incumbency and lack of discipline in the party that have affected them. In a way, Congress had given an impression that the party was not ready to rule Rajasthan."

The big news of the Delhi election, even if the BJP wins it, is the dramatic debut of AAP. It indicated that the party, which has captured the imagination of young voters with its slogan of change and innovative campaign methods, has weaned away some of the Congress and BJP support base.

The exit polls also showed that the one-year old party, which was an offshoot of an anti-corruption movement anchored by social activist Anna Hazare, has succeeded in bringing out a large number of urban voters, especially the youth, to the polling booths.

In Wednesday’s polling, Delhi registered the highest voter turnout ever, of 65.3%, according to final figures released by the Delhi’s state election commission on Thursday. Polling in some areas had continued into the night because many people were waiting to vote at the scheduled 5pm close.

PTI contributed to this story.

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Published: 04 Dec 2013, 09:12 PM IST
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