Home >News >World >Hillary Clinton far ahead of Donald Trump on betting exchanges and online markets
Hillary Clinton is trading at an 80% chance on Betfair and Donald Trump at a 20% chance of winning the White House. Photo: AFP
Hillary Clinton is trading at an 80% chance on Betfair and Donald Trump at a 20% chance of winning the White House. Photo: AFP

Hillary Clinton far ahead of Donald Trump on betting exchanges and online markets

Bookmaker Paddy Power said Clinton's chance of winning the elections dipped slightly to 81.8% on election day from 83.3%, while Trump's probability improved to 22% from 20%

New York: Betting exchanges and online trading platforms on Tuesday said Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton held a far higher probability of winning than Republican Donald Trump.

While Trump made modest gains in probability to win on some online platforms as Americans went to the polls on Tuesday, many gave Clinton a better than 75% chance of victory.

Bookmaker Paddy Power said Clinton’s chance of taking the White House dipped slightly to 81.8% on election day from 83.3%, while Trump’s probability improved to 22% from 20%.

“The flow of money is relatively even with it slightly favouring Trump," said Paddy Power spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire.

More on the US presidential elections

He said Paddy Power has seen at least 20 four- and five-figure bets placed on Tuesday. Different bookmakers and exchanges have different closing times for placing bets.

Record numbers of bettors are pouring millions into online platforms in the hope of capturing a financial windfall from the election.

British gambling company Ladbrokes, which has Clinton’s chance of winning at 76% and Trump’s at 24%, said it anticipated more wagers coming in for the outcome of the US presidential election than had been placed on the European Union referendum or “Brexit" vote.

“The US election has gripped the nation," said Ladbrokes spokeswoman Jessica Bridge in a written statement. “It [is] the biggest ever non-sporting event the bookmaking industry has witnessed."

British-based Internet betting exchange Betfair’s “Next President" market was on track to surpass Brexit in amount traded, owing to the surprise results of the referendum that were still fresh in many Britons’ minds, spokeswoman Naomi Totten said.

The market saw just under $150 million wagered since it opened in November 2012, with $7 million traded in just seven hours on Tuesday.

While opinion polls went back and forth leading into Britain’s 23 June referendum on whether or not to remain in the European Union, betting odds favoured the “remain" campaign. Britons voted to leave by a 52% to 48% margin.

Clinton is trading at an 80% chance on Betfair and Trump at a 20% chance of winning the White House.

Trading platforms in the US showed similar probabilities.

On PredictIt, launched in 2014 and jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, DC-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc, Clinton had an 80% chance of victory down from 81% on Sunday, while Trump was at 22%, up from 20%. Reuters

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