Greenhouse gases changing global climate

The assessment by over 200 scientists has reaffirmed that climate change has led to heat waves, record high temperatures and, in many regions, heavy rainfall in the past half century.

“The main message from the report is that we know enough to make good decisions about managing the risks of climate-related disasters," said Chris Field, co-chair of IPCC’s working group II, which produced the report in collaboration with its working group I. “Sometimes we take advantage of this knowledge, but many times we do not."

The report doesn’t contain any surprises but sets the tenor for a series of important reports, called the fifth assessment report, that will be published next year, an expert said.

“The projections of rising sea levels and an increase of heavy rainfall events aren’t new," said Sudhir Bokhade, who was involved in a previous IPCC report. “However, this gives you a sense of what to expect from the fifth assessment report next year."

While it is uncertain what the theme of this future assessment might be, it will play an important role in formulating the positions that countries may take at global fora to decide the quantum of emission cuts they must enforce to limit global warming.

Countries are expected to convene at Doha in Qatar later this year to begin negotiations on an agreement beyond the Kyoto Protocol, the current standard by which countries are expected to cap emissions until 2017.

“The IPCC is deeply committed to producing reports that are policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive through a transparent process," IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri said in a statement.

IPCC got mired in a controversy in 2010 over sections in the fourth assessment report, in which it said glaciers in the Himalayas would disappear by 2035, a statement that was picked up from non-scientific literature and later edited out of the modified text.

While an independent group absolved IPCC of malfeasance, it recommended that future scientific reports observe higher levels of prudence in sourcing and attributing climate projections.

jacob.k@livemint.com

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