GDP back series data not official estimates: Govt
The calculations on GDP back series data are still a work in progress, says National Statistics Commission
New Delhi: The Narendra Modi government today said that the GDP back series data released last week are not official estimates while the National Statistics commission (NSC) said the calculations are still a work in progress. The statement comes at a time the Congress is using this data to defend it’s track record and management of the Indian economy during the United Progressive Alliance’s 10-year tenure at the Centre.
The numbers revealed that the Indian economy had grown twice in double digits during the tenure of the UPA under prime minister Manmohan Singh. The Congress has been quick to seize the initiative and argue that it handed the economy which was on an upswing to the Narendra Modi government in 2014.
“These recommendations of the NSC Committees will be examined by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and other experts for deciding on the appropriate methodology to be adopted for generating the back series estimates for each sector,” the government said.
“The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics will be deliberating on the back series estimates before finalising the same for continuity, consistency and reliability,” the statement said adding that the estimates released on Friday are not official estimates.
Separately, the NSC in a statement, said that the methodology for back-casting GDP series has not yet been finalized and various alternative methods are being explored.
“The methodology as also the series using the methodology will be worked out using the suggestions made by the Committee on Real Sector Statistics and other suggestions that emanate during the consultancy process. This exercise will first be considered in the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics and subsequently by the NSC,” the statement said adding that, “Thereafter, the MoSPI will consider releasing official estimates on back series of GDP data. Thus, it is work in progress.”
The calculations have been made by a sub-committee headed by N.R. Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), within the committee on Real Sector Statistics headed by Sudipto Mundle, emeritus professor at the institute.
As per the calculations, from 1994-95 to 2002-03, GDP growth under the new series was lower than estimates under the old series, while between 2003-04 to 2011-12, the economy has grown faster than earlier estimated.
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