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The NDA has had a dream run in its first year: retail inflation is under control, fiscal deficit below the targeted level and a current account deficit projected to vanish in the fourth quarter, thanks to low global crude oil prices.

But the same crude prices, coupled with predictions of a weak monsoon, deterioration of asset quality of banks and the US Fed’s policy decisions, can impact India’s fiscal health in the coming year. It thus remains to be seen how the Narendra Modi-led government frames its reforms policy to tide over these parameters.

El Niño hitting India as predicted could impact rains, farm output and, in turn, rural demand

Rising crude oil prices could stoke inflation, impact govt’s fiscal policy

Further deterioration of asset quality in banks may hit lending, economic revival

A Fed rate hike could drive away FPIs from Indian markets

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