USDA report sees India as the third largest economy by 2030
The US will continue to be the leader, with China's a close second with GDP likely to grow to more than twice its size today
Get ready for a new economic order. In the world 15 years from now, the US will be far less dominant, several emerging markets will catapult into prominence, and some of the largest European economies will be slipping behind. India, ranked eighth for 2015, will climb past Brazil, the UK, France, Germany and Japan to take third place.
That’s according to the US Department of Agriculture’s latest macroeconomic projections that go out to 2030. The US will just barely remain the global leader, with $24.8 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP), up from the $16.8 trillion GDP projected for 2015. The country, worth 25% of the world economy in 2006 and 23% in 2015, will see its share decline to 20%.
China’s GDP will grow to more than twice its size today, helping the country to almost entirely close its gap with the US.
India, ranked eighth for 2015, will climb past Brazil, the UK, France, Germany and Japan to take third place, with its GDP at $6.6 trillion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calls India “the bright spot in the global landscape”. The country will have the largest workforce in the world within the next 15 years, the IMF notes, and among the youngest.
Other nations won’t be so lucky, particularly among developed economies. Japan will see very little growth, pushing it down a spot in the rankings. France will slide three spots, while Italy drops two.
In the overall ranking, Jamaica will surrender the most ground, bumping down 13 places to 136. Countries with the biggest advances—such as Uganda, which will climb 18 spots to rank 91—are concentrated in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
The USDA is not the only—and hardly the most widely followed—ranking of global economic growth, though it does offer the advantage of particularly long-term outlooks. The IMF’s economic outlook only projects out two years. Bloomberg
Catch all the Politics News and Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.
MoreLess
First Published:10 Apr 2015, 08:25 PM IST
- Top Gainers
- Top Losers
- 52 Week High