Monsoon to arrive early, will hit Kerala on 29 May: IMD
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon for the country for the third consecutive year, it is yet to give a forecast for the region-wise distribution of rainfall
Delhi: The south-west monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast on 29 May, three days ahead of its normal date of arrival, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The beginning of the southwest monsoon, which provides over 70% of the annual rainfall to the country, is marked by its onset over the Kerala coast, usually on 1 June.
However, since 2014, with the exception of last year, when the monsoon arrived on 29 May, the monsoon has been delayed.
In its second long-range forecast released on Friday, the government’s weather office stated that this year, the south-west monsoon would arrive in Kerala on 29 May, with a model error of plus/minus four days.
The sowing of rain-fed kharif crops is dependent on the timely arrival of the monsoon, which irrigates half of India’s total crop area during the June-September period.
While IMD has predicted a normal monsoon for the third consecutive year, it is yet to give a forecast for the region-wise distribution of rainfall, which largely determines the impact of the monsoon on the agrarian economy.
“We have announced the forecast for the onset of the monsoon,” said M Mohapatra, head of National Weather Forecasting Centre at IMD. “The forecast for the geographical distribution of rainfall would be announced in the first week of June.”
The south-west monsoon advances over Andaman Sea usually around 20 May, with a standard deviation of about a week. The department highlighted that conditions are likely to become favourable for the advance of the monsoon into some parts of Andaman Sea and south-east Bay of Bengal by 23 May.
However, officials emphasized that past data has indicated there was no significant association of the arrival of the monsoon over Andaman Sea either with the onset of the monsoon over the mainland or with the overall monsoon rainfall over the country.
According to the first stage long-range forecast of IMD, rainfall is expected to be 97% of the 50-year average, with a 54% chance that it would be normal-to-above normal. The probability that rainfall would be deficient—less than 90% of the 50-year average—is 14%.