Spectre of hung assembly looms over Uttar Pradesh

Lucknow: The iconic dialogue— picture abhi baaki hai, mere dost— from Shah Rukh Khan’s Bollywood movie Om Shanti Om could well describe the current poll scenario in Uttar Pradesh where a hung Assembly is a possibility.

Even before the election results are declared on 11 March, party insiders do not discount chances of a fractured verdict after the seven phases of polling that will come to an end on Wednesday in the absence of any wave.

After all the key players talked about notching up 300 plus of the 403 seats, talks of a hung house suddenly gained momentum in the last phases of polling with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself flagging the possibility of a hung assembly in the state.

Modi said the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) were waiting for such an opportunity for bargaining, prompting chief minister Akhilesh Yadav to comment that after dreaming of 300 plus seats, Modi was now talking about a fractured verdict.

The contest is between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling SP along with partner Congress and Mayawati’s BSP, which is looking to script a comeback in the state. To win 202 or 50% seats this year, a party will need to get 35% of the vote share. Five years ago, the Samajwadi Party had needed just 29% of the vote share to win 226 seats. Mayawati’s party had won only 80 seats with 26% votes.

The two regional heavyweights saw a steep fall two years later, with the BJP and its ally Apna Dal sweeping the 2014 general election, winning 73 of UP’s 80 seats with 42% of the vote share. The BJP can afford to lose 7% of its vote share from 2014 to still win this year, while SP-Congress must gain 6% to reach 35%, and BSP will have to stretch about 15% to win.

The BJP is counting on its core support base - urban voters, the youth and upper caste voters, while Akhilesh Yadav hopes to consolidate his party’s traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank with his partnership with the Congress and is also targeting the Muslims who may vote for the BSP.