Indian economic cycle entering strongest phase: report
The Indian economy is at the cusp of entering its strongest growth phase and a full blown bull market is yet to play out with the wide-based Nifty expected to touch 11,500 in 2018, says report
New Delhi: The Indian economy is at the cusp of entering its strongest growth phase and a full blown bull market is yet to play out with the wide-based Nifty expected to touch 11,500 in 2018, says a report. An economy enters the strongest phase of growth when stocks, bonds and commodities all rally together. “We believe that India is at the cusp of entering this phase and full blown bull market is yet to play out,” Edelweiss Investment Research said in a note.
According to Edelweiss Investment Research, consumption and exports are boosting economic growth in the country. While consumption has displayed sharp recovery after the cash crunch in early 2017, investments are witnessing only a government supported recovery which is inadequate but effective for a few sectors like railways, roads and power transmission and distribution (T&D), it said.
Regarding the uptick in equities, the report said, stock markets are driven by low inflation, profitability and increase in financial savings. Though Nifty valuations are “rich”, a continued shift in allocation of funds from debt to equity are likely to continue.
“A comparison of Nifty’s earning yield versus the 10 year government bond yield shows that equities are still attractive as compared to debt instruments and we should expect shift in the allocation of funds from debt to equity to continue,” the report said.
Edelweiss Investment Research expects Nifty to touch 11,500 in calender year 2018. Nifty is currently hovering around 9,700 level. The wide-based index had breached 10,000 mark for the first time on 25 July. Regarding trade, which is a key driver for India’s growth engine, the report said synchronous global growth is likely to boost international trade as well as Indian exports.
“Export growth is held up despite facing pressure from a strong rupee. We expect exports to remain healthy with global industrial activity reviving,” the report said. Moreover, consumption which had slowed post demonetisation is slowly picking up in India as reflected in 2-wheeler and passenger vehicle sales and this in turn is likely to lead to a revival in investments.
“We believe that India’s strong consumption story will drive in investment as witnessed from 2003-08 and earlier episodes,” it said.
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