New Delhi: After remaining subdued for more than a week, the southwest monsoon is expected to revive, before moving towards north India after 24 June. In its latest weather forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the southwest monsoon could not advance for the last one week because of weak flow. However, the monsoon circulation is likely to improve during the weekend.
According to the IMD, it will then advance over the remaining parts of Assam, some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and some parts of Jharkhand, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, between 23 and 25 June.
The early onset of the monsoon over Kerala had raised hopes for early rains over the north-western states, but the monsoon weakened around 13 June. Part of eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and some parts of Gujarat, where the monsoon would have normally arrived around 15 June, remained rain-deficit. Now, the onset of the monsoon over central and north states could be delayed.
The IMD said monsoon circulation is expected to improve with the movement of the active phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to west Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea over the next two or three days. “Some positive changes have begun to occur, but we would get a clear picture in the next two days," said A.K. Srivastav, head, climate monitoring and analysis group, IMD Pune.
Cyclonic circulations are also likely to develop over east India, which will strengthen the easterlies over the Gangetic plains.
“To help the propagation of monsoon, there has to be sustained activity in north-eastern part of Bay of Bengal. The active phase of MJO over the Indian Ocean is critical as it positively impacts monsoon and winds have to be strong," said associate professor Sridhar Balasubramanian, a meteorology expert from IIT Bombay.
Monsoon rainfall, which was 19% surplus until 13 June, reduced to a deficit of 4% as on 19 June. However, the subdued phase was not entirely dry, as heavy rainfall activity continued along the western coast and parts of north-eastern states.