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Business News/ Politics / News/  Civic polls to test Uddhav’s leadership
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Civic polls to test Uddhav’s leadership

Civic polls to test Uddhav’s leadership

Battle ahead: Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. Hindustan TimesPremium

Battle ahead: Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. Hindustan Times

Mumbai: The forthcoming municipal elections in Mumbai, the country’s commercial capital, and nine other cities in Maharashtra hold the key to the fortunes of Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray, under whose leadership the party lost two consecutive assembly elections—in 2004 and 2009.

The Sena, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has controlled the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) since 1985 except during 1991-94.

Battle ahead: Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray. Hindustan Times

After the last assembly elections in 2009, the Sena was relegated to the fourth position and won fewer seats than its alliance partner BJP. That meant it had to concede the position of leader of the opposition in the state assembly to the BJP. In Mumbai, while the Sena won four assembly segments, the MNS secured six. The MNS won 13 seats in the assembly elections and is estimated to have spoiled the chances of Sena-BJP candidates in at least 35-40 seats.

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Much depends on whether the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), coalition partners at the central and state level, manage to strike an alliance for the local polls. In 2007, both parties contested civic polls separately, helping the Sena-BJP combine win 110 seats in a House of 227. This will also mark the first major electoral test for Prithviraj Chavan, since becoming chief minister in November, 2010. He’s keen to consolidate his position by wresting MCGM from the Sena, as is his deputy Ajit Pawar, who now virtually controls the NCP in the state.

To counter the splitting of the vote of the “Marathi Manoos" (native of Maharashtra) with the MNS, the Shiv Sena has roped in a third partner—the Ramdas Athavale faction of the Republican Party of India (RPI), which represents the neo-Buddhist section of Maharashtra’s Dalit population. Dalits form 18.5% of Maharashtra’s population. Of this, 7.5% are neo-Buddhists.

If the Congress and the NCP form an alliance, the Sena will find it difficult to retain control over MCGM as the party is not only facing anti-incumbency but also a division of its core constituency, said columnist and political commentator Pratap Asbe.

If the Shiv Sena loses control over MCGM, a large section of the party’s cadre and lower-rung functionaries will switch loyalties to MNS chief Raj Thackeray, Asbe said.

Noted Dalit thinker and writer Gangadhar Pantavane said the “Dalit population has historically eyed Hindu supremacist forces with suspicion. Just because Athavale has joined hands with these forces, his followers won’t necessarily vote for the Sena-BJP."

Shiv Sena’s Rajya Sabha MP and spokesman Sanjay Raut dismissed the prospect of defeat. “Because of our track record on the developmental front, we are sure we will manage to secure a simple majority with help from our allies."

makarand.g@livemint.com

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Published: 04 Jan 2012, 10:42 PM IST
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