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Business News/ News / World/  Hopes high as El Niño recedes
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Hopes high as El Niño recedes

If WMO's assessment is correct and El Nio is on the wane, India may be set to break the run of poor monsoons

World Meteorological Organization said the 2015-16 El Niño, a weather phenomenon which occurs every two to seven years and influences climate patterns, has ‘passed its peak’. Photo: John Vizcaino/ReutersPremium
World Meteorological Organization said the 2015-16 El Niño, a weather phenomenon which occurs every two to seven years and influences climate patterns, has ‘passed its peak’. Photo: John Vizcaino/Reuters

New Delhi: El Niño is in retreat, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said—a development that should bring relief for policy planners in India after two consecutive years of drought.

WMO said the 2015-16 El Niño, a weather phenomenon which occurs every two to seven years and influences climate patterns, has “passed its peak".

“We have just witnessed one of the most powerful ever El Niño events which caused extreme weather in countries on all continents and helped fuel record global heat in 2015," WMO secretary general Petteri Taalas said in a statement.

“In meteorological terms, this El Niño is now in decline. But we cannot lower our guard as it is still quite strong and in humanitarian and economic terms, its impacts will continue for many months to come," Taalas added.

If WMO’s assessment is correct and the El Niño indeed is on the wane, India may be set to break the run of poor monsoons. The annual monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected in April.

A normal monsoon would help improve India’s macroeconomic prospects and boost rural demand.

One of the challenges finance minister Arun Jaitley is expected to address in the budget he presents on 29 February is rural distress triggered by a combination of consecutive droughts and a collapse of global commodity prices.

For the time being, IMD scientists are remaining cautious.

“There are many other factors that can influence the monsoon. We will have the data by April; it is too early to say anything right now," said D.S. Pai, head of the long-range forecasting division at IMD.

The WMO update said that its models indicate a return to an El Niño–Southern Oscillation neutral state during the second quarter of 2016.

El Niño, a phenomenon resulting from warming in the Pacific Ocean leading to atmospheric changes, is associated with droughts and floods in different parts of the world.

India was badly affected by El Niño in 2015 with a 14% rainfall deficit in the south-west monsoon, after which 10 states officially declared a drought. In the previous year, the south-west monsoon rainfall was 12% less than average.

The south-west monsoon runs from June to September, accounting for more than 70% of the annual rainfall in the country, where more than half the farmlands depend on rainfall for irrigation.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) also said in its latest update that the 2015-16 El Niño is continuing its gradual decline. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooling and the atmosphere is showing some signs of a declining El Niño, it said.

Weather scientists are now trying to ascertain whether 2016 could be the year of La Niña, an anti-El Niño phenomenon which is usually associated with good rains in India.

Taking into account 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña, according to an analysis by BOM.

The Australian weather agency, however, added that while La Niña in 2016 cannot be ruled out, another El Niño is not likely.

“I think that La Niña is not going to be here before the monsoon, although El Niño may turn neutral," IMD’s Pai said.

IMD uses six main predictors for its long-range forecast for the June-September monsoon season, one of which is El Niño. Factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, or the difference in the surface temperatures between western and eastern parts of the sea, and Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature also play an important role in driving climate patterns.

According to IMD, strong El Niño conditions which persisted during the winter are expected to further decline to moderate or weak levels during the spring and almost neutral in the summer.

“It is too early to say if monsoon will be normal; so, we have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst," said Ashok Gulati, Infosys chair professor for agriculture at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Delhi.

“It is a disaster already in agriculture with a failed monsoon two years in a row; the growth rate in agriculture is less than half a per cent and per capita income is down. So, some major bold moves are needed from the government or the majority of the country is going to suffer," he added.

Apart from drought in India in 2015—the hottest year on record—WMO also linked El Niño to failed rains in southern African countries leading to food insecurity, drought in southern parts of South-East Asia from July to October, and drought in several countries in Central America.

It was also associated with severe flooding in Paraguay and an active tropical cyclone season in Western North Pacific and Eastern North Pacific basins.

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Published: 20 Feb 2016, 12:34 AM IST
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