BackElection dates for 5 states announced, 11 March D-Day for demonetisation
StakeshighforPM Narendra Modiasstrongperformancein pollswill encourage governmentto press ahead with radical reforms
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New Delhi: Elections to five states, including the country’s most politically important one, Uttar Pradesh, will take place in February and March, with the results being declared on 11 March, the Election Commission said on Wednesday.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the polls will be a referendum on the demonetisation exercise. Modi will lead the campaign of the BJP and the contest will boil down to him versus the rest of the political parties.
A strong performance will encourage Modi to press ahead with radical reforms. A poor one, especially a loss in Uttar Pradesh, could derail the process and also raise questions, even within the BJP, on Modi’s aggressive policies.
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Announcing the poll schedule on Wednesday, chief election commissioner Nasim Zaidi said: “The model code of conduct will come into immediate effect and will apply to political parties and state governments concerned, besides the central government, in terms of announcements in these states."
web.jpg "Ahmed Raza Khan/Mint")
Significantly, polling in all five states begins after the Union budget, which is scheduled for 1 February. Zaidi said some political parties had expressed concerns about this. “We are looking into it and will take a decision in due course of time," Zaidi told reporters.
In 2012, the then United Progressive Alliance government delayed the Union budget by a fortnight to accommodate state polls.
The BJP has the most to gain, or lose.
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It is in power in Goa and part of a coalition government with the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab. And after its defeat in the Bihar elections in 2015, it needs to win Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand to retain the political dominance it had in the 2014 parliamentary elections in the Hindi heartland.
An analyst added that the elections are also important for Modi.
“The stakes are extremely high for Modi because, at present, the BJP is Modi and Modi is the BJP. People will analyse the results, keeping in mind the demonetisation decision taken by the centre. So, personally, Modi has a lot at stake," said Sanjay Kumar, director of the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
But the elections are also important for other parties.
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Analysts say that for the Congress, which is in power in Uttarakhand and Manipur, this is a test of survival in North India. In Punjab, under former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh, the Congress is running a spirited campaign. But in Uttarkhand, it faces the challenge of overcoming internal tussles. “The Congress has very little presence in Uttar Pradesh, and the party will try to protect Rahul Gandhi if it does not fare well. The Congress cannot imagine winning Uttar Pradesh or even coming second. But the stakes are very high for the party in Goa, Uttarakhand and Punjab," Kumar said.
Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party is caught in the midst of a feud between party supremo Mulayam Yadav and his son and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. And the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is trying to make a comeback.
The state elections will be the first after a recent Supreme Court order which ruled that politicians cannot seek votes in the name of caste and religion. “The law department of the election commission is preparing instructions based on the Supreme Court order," Zaidi said.
Zaidi added that for the first time the EC has made it mandatory for every candidate to file an affidavit in the form of a “no demand certificate" declaring pending electricity, water, telephone bills and rent for government accommodation.
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