Electric vehicles are taking off in India—but the runway is long

This week, Chinese EV heavyweight BYD officially entered the Indian passenger-vehicle market with an electric sport-utility vehicle. It aims by the end of this decade to capture 40% of India’s EV market, now dominated by Tata Motors, with Maruti Suzuki, Volkswagen and Toyota planning to enter in the next few years.

However, a lot hinges on making EVs much cheaper and enticing global battery makers to produce locally. That isn’t impossible—but China, the U.S. and many other countries are also determined to motivate local production.

The affordability numbers are stark. Tata’s Nexon, the most popular Indian EV, costs nine times the average per capita income, according to Goldman Sachs. In markets where EV adoption has grown rapidly, average selling prices clock in at one-half to two times incomes, says the bank. Unless auto makers are able to bring down battery costs, the biggest slice of an EV’s price, adoption will be limited.

That’s not to say that demand isn’t growing rapidly, albeit from a small base. Electric-car registrations have quadrupled over the past 12 months, and accounted for 1.3% percent of new-car registrations in September, according to Goldman. More choices and higher fuel prices have helped, as has a push from the government, which wants EVs to account for 30% of private-car sales and 70% of commercial-vehicle sales by 2030. It rolled out incentives for EV manufacturing as well as sales in 2019.

But the government still has its work cut out for it.

The average selling price of an internal-combustion car in India this year sits at $10,734, versus $20,263 for an electric car, according to Jato Dynamics, an automotive-research firm. Unless India can significantly reduce battery costs, which typically account for 40% of EV costs there, auto makers will struggle to deepen EV penetration, Jato President and Director Ravi Bhatia said. Goldman believes that for EV adoption to really take off in India, global anode and cathode manufacturers must start producing there.

But the big makers don’t have any such plans, probably because of the small market and lack of raw materials. For now, India’s role in batteries is limited to low-value functions such as packing, battery-management systems and casing.

The government may continue its sales incentives beyond 2024, but bridging the gap between ambition and reality is going to be a tough task. Ultimately, success may depend on factors beyond Delhi’s control—for example much cheaper battery metal prices as global supply grows, and improvements in battery technology.