Pakistan airspace closure: Delhi airport and Air India to see maximum impact as first cancellations trickle in

As Pakistan closed its airspace for Indian airlines and barred them from overflying, airlines have scrambled to adjust schedules and start cancellations. A look at the airline and airport websites shows that IndiGo has already cancelled flights to Almaty and Tashkent today. It operates daily from Delhi and the route will be too circuitous to operate by avoiding the Pakistani airspace. There will be a direct impact on flights to Central Asia, where operations may have to be suspended.

The current NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) released by Pakistani authorities shows that the airspace is closed till 0530 hours on May 24, 2025, Indian Standard Time. These NOTAMs, which are dictated by geopolitical tensions, are always up for changes depending on the situation on the ground. While there have not been any direct flights between the two countries for a very long time, Indian carriers flying to the Middle East, North America and Europe, especially from Northern India, regularly use the Pakistani airspace for transit.

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Major impact on Delhi airport

The maximum impact of this would be felt by Delhi airport, already reeling under the pressure of runway closure for work and subsequent delays, along with Air India. Air India has 134 weekly departures to Europe and North America (USA & Canada) from Delhi, its primary hub, and these will feel the pinch of the airspace closure. The impact will be on the block times, which will now be more than before as planes fly longer. The last time there was a similar impact was in 2021 when Taliban took over Afghanistan and airlines started avoiding the Afghan airspace completely for a few months. Before that, Pakistani airspace was closed for all India-bound planes, including foreign carriers, from February 27, 2019, to July 16, 2019, in the aftermath of the Balakot strikes by the Indian Air Force, in retaliation for the Pulwama attack.

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While replying to a query in the Rajya Sabha, the Upper House of the Indian parliament, the then Union Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that Air India had suffered a loss of INR 491 crore between February 27, 2019 and July 02, 2019. Losses for SpiceJet and IndiGo were much lower at less than INR 50 crore.

Data shared by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, exclusively for this article, shows that Indian carriers operate 144 weekly departures from Delhi to points in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, all of which overfly Pakistani airspace regularly. The closure could have an impact on approximately 300 flights a week at Delhi airport, which handles a little over 1,000 flights a week, shows data by Cirium.

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For the airport, this means changes in arrival and departure times, and since Delhi is the largest hub in India, it also impacts transfer passengers and transfer times. This will deal a blow to Air India’s “Via India” campaign where it changed timings of its flights to Australia and added a bank of flights to Europe to offer seamless and fastest connections between points in the European Union and Australia.

Tail Note

Geopolitics remains an ever-changing and dynamic area, and airlines the world over are aware of it. While every country looks at its options holistically, which includes military and nonmilitary retaliation, airlines worldwide know how quickly things can change and turn. For now, the airlines are getting ready with “Brace, Brace”, while the impact remains unknown. For businesses, this will be a small price to pay, as the country's top leadership decides on the next steps.

There have always been questions about a reciprocal ban. However, Pakistan is not connected to South East Asia currently and thus has no impact. Its flights to China and other parts overfly the Northerly route which passes via Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.

If push comes to shove and the escalation continues, airlines may be forced to drop some routes for a longer period and would lead to Indian carriers not being able to fly to Central Asia. IndiGo could well utilise the additional capacity to release its wet-leased aircraft, while Air India may also look at some cancellations to ensure schedule stability.

All eyes are now on the political leadership for what the next steps will be and when they will be taken. Pakistan has also taken a decision to stop trade with India. India’s exports to Pakistan from April 2024 to January 2025 stood at 445.65 million USD. This was only 0.128 of India’s total exports. India imported goods worth USD 0.42 million from Pakistan for the same period, which stood at 0.0001 per cent of total imports by India.