Scooters Sales May Finally Beat Pre Pandemic Levels as Growth Outpaces Motorcycles

Between April and February this year, scooter sales posted 16.6% growth to reach nearly 6.3 million units. Experts are of the view that sales are likely to cross the 6.7 million units mark of FY19 and even the record 6.72 million units of FY18, as per data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

Comparatively, motorcycle sales in FY25 so far have severely lagged scooters, recording growth of just about 5% to reach 11.2 million units, amid a slowdown in its bread-and-butter economy segment. In FY19, motorcycle sales stood at 13.6 million.

In February, though, scooter sales declined year-on-year by about 0.5%, while that of motorcycles fell 13%. Overall, SIAM data suggests the domestic two-wheeler market grew by about 9% in the first 11 months of this fiscal led by the growth in the scooter segment.

“It seems likely that scooter sales will cross their pre-pandemic levels this fiscal," said Pramod Amthe, head of institutional equity research at InCred Capital. “More discounts, launches and rising electrification are the primary reasons for the outperformance of scooters."

To be sure, domestic two-wheeler volumes—both scooters and motorcycles—have not crossed the pre-pandemic levels since FY19, but at least three brokerages estimate that scooters might just shatter that barrier this fiscal.

Kotak Institutional Equities is bullish about scooter sales crossing the pre-pandemic levels to reach over 7 million units in fiscal 2025.

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In a note on 12 March, the brokerage’s Rishi Vora wrote, “We expect scooter segment trends to remain healthy, driven by urbanisation resulting in higher penetration and income tax cuts announced in the budget.

At the same time, the brokerage noted, “The domestic two-wheeler segment has seen demand moderation, especially driven by the motorcycle segment, owing to weak consumer sentiment and financing challenges resulting in credit tightening, especially in entry-level motorcycle segment."

To be sure, the overall share of motorcycles in the two-wheeler segment has continuously shrunk over the past two years, declining from 63.1% at the start of fiscal 2023 to 60.7% at the end of the October-December 2024.

Electric charge

Over the past few years, new launches in the electric scooter space by leading players such as Ola Electric, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor and Ather Energy have grown the size of the electric two-wheeler market.

Largely dominated by scooters with minimal electric motorcycle options, EV two-wheeler sales were about 1.15 million in 2024, which is 6.3% share of the overall two-wheeler market, per data from Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA).

Bajaj launched a new Chetak e-scooter in December last year followed by Ather and Ola Electric introducing new variants in January. Suzuki also announced its entry into the electric scooter space with the launch of e-access in January.

“New EV scooters are offering better total cost of ownership compared to the entry level of motorcycles," said Sanket Kelaskar, equity research analyst for auto at Ashika Group.

Also Read: Aston Martin to extend life of ICE models as global EV demand cools

Government schemes such as PM E-Drive scheme offer incentives worth ₹10,000 per electric scooter, helping give electric scooters an edge in the market.

“Due to customers' preference turning towards scooters, there is a high probability that scooter sales will cross their pre-pandemic levels," said Kelaskar.

Slowing wheels

Meanwhile, the market for entry-level 75-110 cc segment in motorcycles has been shrinking, with its share in total motorcycle sales mix at 46.5% in the first 10 months of this fiscal compared to 61.9% in fiscal year 2019.While Honda dominates the scooter space, the motorcycle segment is led by Hero MotoCorp.

Between April and February 2025, Hero MotoCorp has sold 4.7 million units of motorcycles in the domestic market, followed by Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI) at 2.3 million units, Bajaj Auto at 1.9 million units, and TVS Motor at 1.1 million units, according to data from SIAM.

As for scooters, HMSI led the pack with 2.63 million units sold in India thus far in FY25, followed by TVS Motor at 1.6 million units, Suzuki Motorcycles India at 0.9 million units, and Hero MotoCorp at 0.3 million units.

Accelerating TVS

However, analysts are particularly bullish about TVS’s outperformance in scooter sales.

The company has grown 23% this fiscal (April to February), even as scooter market leader HMSI has grown 12%, and Hero MotoCorp has declined 5% in domestic sales.

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“TVS continues to outperform {in the scooter segment], being the only player to have posted strong double-digit growth (+23.5%) in Feb’25, while the industry posted a 5% YoY decline in sales. The newly launched Jupiter110 is experiencing strong demand, posting 40% YoY growth in Feb’25, at a time when Activa sales were down 13% YoY," Aniket Mhatre and Amber Shukla of Motilal Oswal wrote in a 20 March note.

Kotak upgraded its recommendation of TVS shares to reduce from sell earlier in the 12 March note.

TVS share price has increased by 1.5% in 2025 as compared to a 5.9% decline in the BSE Auto index.