Budget 2026 expectations Highlights: Industry has high expectations of FinMin Nirmala Sitharaman's ninth Budget speech

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Arun Patel, Founder & Partner at Arunasset Investment Services said that the upcoming Budget should stay focused on supporting demand through a mix of targeted spending, a steady infrastructure push, and measures that help keep consumption on an even keel, without losing sight of fiscal discipline.

“A gradual move to bring the fiscal deficit down to around 4.2 percent of GDP, from about 4.4 percent earlier, fits well with the government’s broader effort to steadily reduce debt over the coming years,” he noted.

Sunil Rathi, the Executive Director of Waaree Energies Limited said that “the Union Budget 2026 is a critical opportunity to move India decisively into the next phase of its clean energy transition, where energy storage becomes as central as generation.”

In order to unlock this inflection point, he noted three core pillars that must be taken under consideration by the government:

— Provide deeper support for vertically integrated manufacturing, spanning solar, batteries, and energy management systems, to build resilient domestic supply chains and reduce import dependence.

— Build an expanded and more flexible viability framework that enables large-scale deployment of storage, particularly when integrated with solar and hybrid projects.

— Having a sharper focus on domestic value addition that catalyses skilled employment and long-term manufacturing competitiveness. When solar and storage scale together,

Ranga Reddy, the CEO of Maveric Systems believes that the upcoming Budget can play a crucial role in shaping the next phase of growth for Indian banks.

“Demand for loans remains strong, but banks are becoming more careful about how they manage money and risk. As they go increasingly digital and adopt AI, their operations are becoming more complex and harder to manage,” he said.

Therefore, he expects that the Union Budget 2026 would introduce initiatives to support stable funding and smoother flow of credit to keep lending healthy.

“At the same time, encouragement for technology, digital systems and the responsible use of AI is equally important. Clear and consistent policies can help banks grow faster while staying reliable, transparent and focused on delivering better outcomes for customers,” he added.

Subhrajit Mukhopadhyay, the Deputy CEO and ED of Edelweiss Life Insurance said that he expects the government to boost capital inflow into the Indian economy, and further the agenda of Insurance for All 2047, along with some reforms for the elderly population.

“This vast ageing population underlines the burgeoning pension and annuity market in India. Annuity caters to the key dilemma of a pensioner, for a life-long pension at a steady, guaranteed rate and exposes the investors to a reinvestment rate risk especially in a volatile interest rate scenario,” he said.

Mukhopadhyay also claimed that annuities are the only solution, as they provide complete protection from the perspective of living longer (i.e. outliving one’s corpus), by providing a regular flow of income throughout one’s lifetime.

“Currently, an annuity is completely taxed in the hands of the customer. Hence, a tax break on annuity could further encourage Indians to opt for these instruments, providing the much-needed social security to many during their golden years. Further, this will help insurance companies invest in long rated bonds and channelize long-term savings into capital intensive sectors,” he said.

Madhur Kukreja, the Managing Director of Happy FinServ, said that he believes that certain reforms are needed to strengthen capital markets and support long-term investors. This includes:

— Aligning FII taxation with global practices by removing the 12.5% long-term capital gains tax, aimed at helping restore foreign investor confidence and improve market liquidity.

— Introducing a separate very long-term capital gains category for investments held over 10 years, thus encouraging patient capital and provide stable funding to Indian businesses.

— Enhancing the tax-free equity withdrawal limit for senior citizens, which would support retirement income needs while promoting sustained participation in equity markets.

Focus on edtech and education sectors is important for the Indian government's Viksit Bharat 2047 goal, industry experts said ahead of the Union Budget 2026.

“We hope to see continued recognition of education as a core driver of long-term economic growth and the Viksit Bharat vision,” Dr Sanjay Salunkhe, Founder, Jaro Education noted.

Salunkhe also expects the Budget to provide focused support for digital and online education which can expand access to credible higher and executive education for working professionals across regions and cities.

“A budget that prioritizes inclusion and recognizes edtech as a key contributor to access, quality, and learner outcomes will reinforce confidence in India’s human capital as the foundation for sustained productivity, innovation, and global competitiveness,” he added.

Kaushik Mitra, the Vice President and Head of India Go-to-Market, Celonis, believes that the upcoming budget could bring an opportunity to enable Enterprise AI adoption by addressing execution readiness.

“The future of the enterprise is AI-driven and composable, but it all starts with making processes work. Clear support for enterprise data modernization and an open, system-agnostic ecosystem would allow companies to free the process from system silos and embrace Process Intelligence,” he said.

According to Mitra, this process is essential to deploy AI reliably in supply chains, finance, and manufacturing.

“Stable and predictable tax and compliance frameworks will further enable long-term investment in technology and talent. A budgetary focus on these areas will help Indian enterprises ground AI in a transparent, real-time understanding of how the business actually runs, converting AI spend into true Enterprise AI and sustained operational performance,” he added.

Tarun Poddar, CEO of Foxhog Ventures feels that the upcoming Union Budget 2026 should lay strong focus on the manufacturing sector, small businesses, and priority sectors.

“If we implement this with true intent and inclusivity, I see a massive potential to strengthen grassroots entrepreneurship and transform India’s village economy into a global growth engine,” he added.

Expectations include:

• Opportunity to look beyond just macroeconomic indicators and truly empower the grassroots economy.
• Provide thoughtful policy support for manufacturing, MSMEs, and rural finance, we can effectively bridge the gap between ‘Viksit Bharat’ and ‘Village Bharat’ - making our growth inclusive, sustainable, and globally competitive.

Mathew Muthoottu, MD of Muthoottu Mini Financiers feels that Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) play a critical role meeting the financial needs of rural and semi-urban India, adding that challenges faced by farmers, small businesses and individuals in accessing credit requires recognition.

Expect:

• Policy continuity that supports grassroots credit flow, regulatory stability, and a predictable cost-of-funds environment for lenders.
• Recognizing NBFCs as key enablers of priority sector objectives and facilitating bank lending to the sector at competitive rates will empower lenders to offer affordable credit to underserved communities.
• Continued emphasis on governance, customer protection, and responsible digital enablement will strengthen trust in the financial system.
• A pragmatic and inclusion-focused Budget can significantly enhance rural livelihoods, drive MSME growth, and reinforce the NBFC sector’s role in promoting sustainable and inclusive economic development.

Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO of Senco Gold feels that despite volatile prices, consumer demand for the precious metals has remained resilient. He feels policy measures will enhance affordability and support demand stability.

Expectations include:

• Initiatives such as regulated small-ticket EMI options for gold jewellery.
• Review of the current 3% GST structure to ease consumer burden and encourage higher participation in the formal market.
• Continued policy focus on innovative mechanisms to mobilise physical gold can help unlock significant long-term value for the economy.
• Steps that strengthen competitiveness, including a review of the current 6% import duty.
• Focused vocational training for karigars, greater adoption of technology, and appropriate flexibility for SEZ units to serve domestic demand, would further reinforce the organised jewellery sector’s contribution to employment, consumption and exports.

Dr Alok Misra, CEO & Director of Microfinance Industry Network (MFIN) feels the sector needs policy support.

Noting that the microfinance sector reaches nearly 30 crore, low-income individuals, he expects:

• Policy support in the form of robust KYC framework for accurate borrower verification and responsible credit reporting.
• In light of SC judgement restricting Aadhar use, address issue through solutions such as Aadhaar last-four-digit storage or tokenisation.
• Requiring policy support for availability of stable funding mechanism. High dependence of NBFC-MFIs on bank funding leads to sudden drying up of funds and affects financial inclusion, like seen for last one year. This has resulted in nearly 50 lakh clients going out of formal finance fold.
• At a macro level, hopeful for an early announcement on the proposed credit guarantee scheme for microfinance, which will further strengthen lender confidence and start a virtuous cycle for the sector.

Ravin Nair, MD of QS I-GAUGE expects “meaningful increase in this year’s budget to strengthen skilling, accelerate digital transformation, and invest in infrastructure to improve learning outcomes, particularly in underdeveloped and rural regions”.

Looks forward to:

• A strong education budget, which will be critical in reinforcing our ambition to emerge as a global educational hub.
• The National Education Policy's goal of increasing the education spending to 6% of GDP will go a long way in helping us achieve this goal.

Nikunj Parashar, Founder & CEO of Sagar Defence Engineering notes that the defence budget is an important factor in sustaining preparedness while gradually strengthening indigenous manufacturing as we advance towards Viksit Bharat 2047.

“As collaborations between the armed forces, DPSUs, and private industry increase, budgetary support has been crucial to building confidence for long-term investment in indigenous systems and subsystems,” he stated.

Expectations include:

• Upcoming Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP), presents a timely opportunity to implement targeted reforms, such as phased localisation, multipliers focused on MSMEs and stronger vendor-driven ecosystem development.
• This will further liberalise the defence ecosystem, expedite procurement timelines, and effectively catalyse self-reliance in defence manufacturing and contribute towards an Atmanirbhar Bharat

Deep Vadodaria, Managing Director, Nila Spaces Limited, called for the prioritization of affordable housing scheme, highlighting slowing private sector participation.

“The Budget should continue to prioritise affordable housing by giving it a realistic and execution-focused push, in line with the government’s ongoing efforts across states. While demand remains strong, private sector participation has slowed in recent years and needs renewed motivation, similar to what was seen in 2017–18, to significantly accelerate development. Affordable housing can address larger urban challenges much faster if supported through targeted incentives," he said.

"The industry is already contributing actively, including on-ground execution in states like Gujarat, and is well positioned to scale up further. At the same time, environmental regulations governing construction need urgent review, as many are outdated and not aligned with today’s air quality and winter pollution realities. The Budget can also encourage sustainable construction practices through environmental incentives, while supportive measures such as stamp duty relief at the state level can further boost momentum,” he added.

Soham Chokshi, Co-founder & CEO, Shipsy, feels that high logistics costs are dampening India's manufacturing potential.

“For India to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy, the Union Budget must move beyond fragmented interventions and adopt a unified, outcome-driven approach. A decisive focus on lowering logistics costs is essential to making Indian manufacturing globally competitive," he said.

"This can be achieved by strategically integrating three national strengths: continued infrastructure investment, the scale and ambition of the Make-in-India initiative, and India’s vast AI and engineering talent. By enabling AI-led optimisation across supply chains, production and logistics, the government can unlock productivity gains, reduce systemic inefficiencies, strengthen exports, and meaningfully advance the vision of Viksit Bharat,” he added.

Girish Kr Sachdev, Member, Board of Management at DPS Indirapuram feels that the education sector stands at a critical juncture ahead of Budget 2026.

“Traditional teaching methods must be complemented by innovative, technology-driven approaches. Robust digital learning platforms, STEM-centric programs, AI and robotics labs, and curriculum innovation that fosters creativity, problem-solving, and critical thinking are no longer optional but essential,” he noted.

• Policymakers should consider extending tax and customs duty exemptions to educational institutions.
• Reducing the cost burden on advanced educational equipment, digital tools, and learning infrastructure will allow schools to upgrade to international standards and significantly enhance the quality of education for young learners.
• Important that these reforms are implemented in an inclusive and equitable manner.
• By integrating technology meaningfully with pedagogy and supporting institutions through progressive fiscal measures,
• Budget 2026 can play a transformative role in strengthening education frameworks, empowering educators, and preparing the next generation to navigate a rapidly evolving world with confidence, adaptability, and vision.

Churchil Bhatt, Executive Vice President – Investment at Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company expects the Budget to take a steady and disciplined approach.

“We see the FY27 fiscal deficit at around 4.3% of GDP, with the government remaining committed to its medium‑term 50 ± 1% debt‑to‑GDP target. Gross market borrowing is likely to stay elevated at roughly ₹16 trillion, reflecting heavy redemptions and a continued focus on capex. We do not expect any major, economy‑wide stimulus at this stage,” Bhatt said.

He noted that the Government has already delivered two significant measures in FY26 — personal income‑tax slab revisions and GST rate cuts.

Expectations:

• Some targeted support is expected for export sectors hit by the recent 50% US tariffs, particularly labour‑intensive segments such as textiles, leather and gems & jewellery.
• Sector‑specific measures are likely to remain modest, with ongoing capex and manufacturing schemes providing indirect support to electronics and engineering‑led exports.

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) expect Budget to reinforce GST reforms. As per a NeoInsights study, 86% of MSMEs expect business growth in 2026 aided by GST reforms. They hope that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget will take up measures that can reinforce operational ease and continuity.

Suresh Bansal, Founder & CEO of DCGpac and Board Member of DTDC told Mint, that as India enters the next phase of economic growth, the Union Budget “must reinforce its commitment to sustainable manufacturing, MSME enablement, and technology-led supply chains”. Read full story here

The healthcare sector is looking forward to policies that support need for infrastructure expansion across rural India, increased capex allocation, tax deductions for patients, insurance regulation and other key areas of need.

Dr Mukesh Batra, Founder-Chairman Emeritus of Dr Batra’s Healthcare, stressed on the importance of judicious use of allocated funds, adding, “As we look ahead to Budget 2026-27, there is a significant opportunity to build on sector momentum by re-orienting healthcare delivery towards prevention, early intervention, and personalized care.” Read full story here

Ahead of the Budget, all eyes are on the Economic Survey, which is scheduled to be tabled in Parliament a day prior to it.

Typically, the Economic Survey document is divided into two parts, A and B.

• Part A: Showcases major macroeconomic developments over the course of the fiscal year, as well as a broader review of the Indian economy.
• Part B: Covers specific socio-economic issues pertaining to the economy.

Prior to 1964 the Economic Survey was part of the Budget presentation and served as an official economic record to inform budgetary discussions in Parliament. Thus, it was separated from the Union Budget to provide lawmakers and the public with important economic context, including data-driven views at the condition of the economy.

The document, by identifying challenges and other issues, also gives crucial context for policy direction.

The Economic Survey is prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance. It is headed by the Chief Economic Adviser.

The document presents an annual report on the Indian economy. It mainly details the finance ministry's analysis of the state of the economy, and reviews performance over the fiscal year, looking at indicators from growth and inflation to jobs, trade, and fiscal health.

The first Economic Survey was presented along with the Budget in 1950-51 but was separated since 1964.

Union Budget 2026 is Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's ninth straight presentation of the country's annual financial statement in Parliament.

She will become the first finance minister to present nine back-to-back Budgets this year. In 2028, Sitharaman is set to tie with former Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai's record of presenting 10 Budgets in Parliament.

• The budget session kicks off on 28 January with a joint address by President Droupadi Murmu to both Houses of Parliament.
• The Economic Survey 2026 will be presented in Parliament by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on 31 January.
• The Union Budget 2026 will be presented in Parliament on 1 February by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
• The Parliament's budget session will conclude on 2 April 2026.

Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on 19 January confirmed that Union Budget 2026 will be announced in Parliament on Sunday, 1 February.

Union Minister Kiren Rijiju had earlier this month said the decision would be taken by the Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs “at an appropriate time”. It was also reported but not confirmed that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman would present the Budget on Sunday.

Sources had told PTI: “We have a fixed day for the presentation of the general budget. The concept of Sunday was brought by the British.”

Expectations are high, as Budget 2026 will be the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government's second full-fledged Budget, amid its third consecutive term in power.

In 2025, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the interim Budget in February ahead of Lok Sabha elections, followed by the Union Budget 2025 in July after the government was voted to power.

The Union Budget is an annual exercise under which India's finance minister presents the country's financial statement for the year. As per Article 112 of the Constitution, the Budget is announced before both Houses of Parliament.

The Union Budget includes estimated annual receipts and expenditure of the following financial year, besides key policy and reform proposals for future developments and projects.

Good morning and welcome to Livemint's extensive coverage of Union Budget 2026. With less than 10 days left for Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's speech on 1 February, we bring you the latest news and updates ahead of India's eagerly awaited finance event.