This year shook India’s paint market, next will raise the heat

Mumbai: After decades of calm, India’s paints industry has seen its equilibrium disrupted over the past year, as deep-pocketed conglomerates moved in—first with Aditya Birla Group’s Birla Opus, followed by JSW Paints’ acquisition of Dutch major Akzo Nobel’s India business.

As competition surged, the industry’s largest players prioritised growth, often at the expense of near-term profitability. One theme stood out in 2025: the paint war is far from over in India’s ₹70,000-crore market.

Birla Opus, which has successfully commissioned all six of its plants, attributes its success to product quality and the consumer experience it creates.

“The journey was fantastic and I think this is like a dream come true. We are into the next stage of how we improve the efficiency of this (our plants) to the next level," Ajith Kumar, chief operating officer of Birla Opus, told Mint.

The top executives of Birla Opus did not disclose specifics on pricing, margins, or key geographies, and said they are on track to achieve ₹10,000 crore in revenue by FY28. However, the Birla-backed paint maker is clear that aggressive discounting is not central to its long-term playbook.

“I don't think these (discounting and pricing) are levers for long-term growth creation in any industry," said Inderpreet Singh, head of marketing, Birla Paints, in an interview with Mint.

This stance contrasts with the public messaging of some rivals. JSW Paints’ managing director Parth Jindal, following the acquisition of Akzo Nobel India, struck a confident note, saying the JSW-Akzo combine would be profitable from day one and would not need to burn cash to gain market share “unlike others", a veiled reference to Birla Opus.

Other incumbents have been more candid about the trade-off between growth and margins. India’s second-largest paint maker, Berger Paints, has said it would prioritise market share over profitability if competitive pressures intensify.

Outlook for 2026

Analysts maintain a cautious outlook for 2026.

“While there is hope for a recovery in 2026, the outlook remains uncertain as competitive intensity is clearly here to stay. The sector remains in a wait-and-watch mode," said Amit Purohit, senior vice-president at Elara Securities.

Nuvama Institutional Equities expects volume growth of 7–8% year-on-year in Q3 (October–December 2025), accelerating to the early double digits in Q4 (January–March 2026). Volume growth is improving in November and December. The second half of the fiscal year is likely to outpace the first half, supported by a strong wedding season in H2, higher disposable income from GST cuts, and pent-up demand after the end of an extended and heavy monsoon.

“We expect paint industry demand to come back, with growth resuming in FY27 or calendar 2026 after two years of slowdown in FY24 and FY25. As demand improves, the industry’s ability to absorb another player’s growth ambitions becomes relatively easier, even with high competitive intensity," said Manoj Menon, head of research at ICICI Securities.

Menon believes that Asian Paints, India’s largest paint maker, has already been aggressive and is likely to remain so—particularly on brand spends.

He also expects Birla Opus to double down at least once more before assessing how the market stabilises, particularly following the leadership transition. Birla Opus's chief executive officer (CEO) Rakshit Hargave resigned in November. The company appointed Himanshu Kapania as interim CEO, who is also the managing director of Grasim Industries, the parent company of Opus.

2026 will also be when the Akzo-JSW integration starts to play out, and Menon expects Dulux to step up brand spending after underinvesting for the past few years.

“2025 was about bottoming out; however, 2026 is about growth," said Menon.

Competition intensifies

In 2025, Asian Paints acknowledged that competitive intensity is here to stay, even as it aims to improve execution and strengthen its brand while rivals ramp up expansion to capture market share.

“Overall, the competitive intensity will remain in the market and I think we have all the players kind of putting their best foot forward in terms of what they are doing," Amit Syngle, managing director and CEO of Asian Paints, said during a post-earnings interaction with analysts in November.

Since Birla Opus entered the market, it claims to have captured about 10% market share, including putty. During this period, Asian Paints’ share has declined to around 50% from earlier levels of 57-59%, while Berger Paints has largely held its ground and even inched up to 20.8%. Kansai Nerolac accounts for about 15%, followed by Akzo Nobel India at around 8-9%.

The first two spots on the leaderboard are clear—Asian Paints followed by Berger Paints. Kansai Nerolac and Birla Opus both claim to be the third-largest by revenue. JSW Paints, combined with Akzo, claims to be fourth, followed by Indigo Paints.

Analysts agree that the competitive pressure is unlikely to ease soon.

“2025 was marked by intense competition in the paint industry, with companies prioritising market share over margins amid muted category growth, down-trading in premium products and weather-related disruptions," said Purohit of Elara Securities.

While Purohit says none of the legacy players stood out in 2025 and a clear winner remains hard to identify heading into 2026, analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities take a different view, saying the market leader is “back with a bang" and “shall continue to dominate".

“Asian Paints, the market leader, has become very aggressive over the past two quarters across promotions, micro-marketing, strong execution, innovation and premiumisation and increasing its share of voice in terms of mass media," said analysts in a note dated 25 November.

Nuvama also noted that distribution strength, placement of tinting machines and sustained brand trust will continue to be the true competitive moats in paints.

Since the start of 2025, stock of Asian Paints has surged nearly 19.97% and that of Berger Paints climbed 18.14%, comfortably outperforming the benchmark Sensex, which rose 8.61% over the same period. Akzo Nobel posted a modest 1.06% gain, while Kansai Nerolac underperformed, with its shares falling 15.29%.

Beyond discounts

As discount-led strategies lose appeal, paint makers are increasingly focusing on strengthening regional strongholds and sharpening product portfolios.

Kansai Nerolac is bolstering its presence in markets where it already enjoys scale, while Nippon Paint India is doubling down on South India. Shalimar Paints is pursuing a turnaround after nearly a decade of losses, and expects to turn Ebitda-positive this fiscal and return to profit in FY27, said managing director and CEO Kuldip Raina.

Ebitda-positive means a company’s core operations are making money, before accounting for interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.

To sidestep aggressive discounting in metros and smaller markets, Shalimar is shifting its focus to underpenetrated towns.

Kansai Nerolac, which faces heavy competition in decorative paints, plans selective investments and a sharper product mix, said managing director Pravin Chaudhari in the second-quarter earnings call. Nippon Paint is also expanding into adjacencies, while Pidilite’s Haisha Paints is scaling up beyond its rural pilot markets, according to Nuvama.