Adani Power Ltd’s contrarian bet on coal-fired power plants—at a time when most private-sector peers shunned the dirty fuel amid environmental scrutiny—has ensured the firm will have a clear growth path over the coming decade, according to experts.
However, skittish investors who are paying a premium for this growth story, may see a short-term hurdle over uncertainty around the company’s lucrative power supply deal to Bangladesh.
As the company declares its earnings on Thursday, revenues are expected to grow marginally to ₹13,848 crore, up from ₹13,434 crore in the year-ago quarter, according to the consensus estimate of three analysts polled by Bloomberg. Profit is expected to grow by 5% to ₹3,075 crore, the analysts estimated.
The muted earnings growth estimate has been attributed to a similar growth in demand for thermal power during this period.
Here are the top things investors should look out for at the company’s Q3FY26 earnings:
Bangladesh overhang
Adani Power’s 1,600-megawatt ultra super-critical plant at Godda in Jharkhand supplies power exclusively to the Bangladesh grid. The transaction, which brings rich margins for the company, has come under scrutiny after an influential national review committee (NRC) in Bangladesh analyzed the country’s severely haemorrhaging power sector.
The NRC has concluded that the national power distributor was buying more electricity than the country needed, and that it was doing so at a high price from private players, especially Adani Power. It recommended renegotiations of these deals, which puts in jeopardy Adani’s 2017 deal with the now-ousted Sheikh Hasina government.
The company supplies power to the neighbouring country at $0.135 per unit ( ₹12.3), as per the NRC's 20 January report. In comparison, Adani Power sold electricity in the merchant market in India at an average price of ₹5.37 per unit during the first six months of FY26, according to an investor presentation from October 2025.
The company makes over ₹8,300 crore a year in revenue and over ₹4,800 crore in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) from the deal, as disclosed by its management in an analyst call on 1 May 2025. This translates to over 14% of the company’s FY25 revenue and nearly a fifth of its Ebitda that fiscal year, making the deal vital for the company.
“Cash flows from the 1.6-gigawatt Godda plant in Bangladesh remain exposed to payment delays, power purchase agreement (PPA) renegotiation risk, and legal uncertainty following scrutiny by the Bangladesh high court, despite recent clearance of past dues,” analysts at brokerage JM Financial noted in a report on 2 January.
But the company has one trick up its sleeve—an imminent connection to the Indian grid. In the event the contract with the Bangladesh government falls through, the company has a backup plan to sell the power in India. However, it is not an ideal scenario, as power will sell at a much lower price in the spot market in India, as demonstrated above. Moreover, there are significant pending dues from the Bangladesh Power Development Board, which could further affect the company’s cash flows.
Capacity expansion and grid connectivity
Adani Power is the most rapidly growing coal-based independent power producer in the country. It plans to ramp up its capacity from 18.2GW at present to 41.9GW by 2032. This will make it the largest thermal power producer in the country.
With the increasing share of variable-renewable power in India’s grid, the government is working to rapidly expand steady thermal power capacity to handle base loads. The country has charted the need for 80GW additional thermal power capacity by FY32, of which, Adani Power has already locked in 23.7GW, giving it a significant growth potential.
The only other large players expanding in thermal power are state-owned NTPC Ltd, and to a lesser extent, JSW Energy Ltd and Torrent Power Ltd.
“Adani Power was the first one to see the indispensability of thermal power in India’s growth story, while many industry peers were scaling back on thermal due to the global shift toward renewables,” the JM Financial analysts noted.
The company gradually built capacities and became the country's largest private-sector thermal power producer with over 18GW capacity through organic growth (10.8GW) and a string of acquisitions of stressed assets (7.3 GW).
However, execution on new capacities will be key. While the company has ordered critical equipment in advance for its new plants, any vendor delays amid a global rush to expand thermal power capacity may also push back its plans.
Investors would keenly track updates and management outlook on this. “Adani Power is undertaking aggressive capacity expansion, exposing it to risks of time and cost overruns, funding pressure, and execution slippages, despite its strong track record and land availability,” wrote the JM Financial analysts.