A timely connectivity to the Indian power grid could help Adani Power Ltd offset some of the potential risks to its financials if its $1-billion-a-year power supply deal with Bangladesh sours, after India’s eastern neighbour accused the Ahmedabad-based conglomerate of charging above-market rates.
A committee set up by Bangladesh’s interim government to review power supply deals signed under the now-ousted Sheikh Hasina regime has accused Adani Power of exporting electricity priced about 50% above market rates. Mint has seen a copy of the report.
While Adani's coal-fired plant in Jharkhand's Godda is currently linked only to the Bangladesh grid, the company has received approval to connect to the Indian grid, too. The company had indicated that it would be connected to India’s power infrastructure by December 2025, but that hasn’t been completed yet.
“We are expecting that it will get connected by December 2025,” S.B. Khyalia, chief executive officer (CEO) of Adani Power, said in an analyst call on 30 October.
The Adani Group did not comment on whether the plant is connected to the grid yet, and if not, by when it would be completed. A person aware of the development said that grid connectivity was imminent, especially since all the approvals have been received.
The company can supply power to India only under two conditions – if there is persistently no scheduling of power by Bangladesh, or if the country defaults on its payments, Khyalia said in the October call.
Only partial relief
Connectivity with the Indian grid will only partly offset any potential margin impact to Adani Power if Bangladesh terminates the deal. This is because the company supplies power to India’s neighbour at $0.135 per unit ( ₹12.3), the 20 January report of Bangladesh's National Review Committee (NRC) showed.
In comparison, Adani Power sold electricity in the merchant market in India at an average price of ₹5.37 per unit during the first six months of FY26, as per an investor presentation from October 2025.
Adani Power has been supplying thermal power to Bangladesh from its Godda plant since 2023 under a 25-year deal inked in 2017. The company makes over ₹8,300 crore a year in revenue and over ₹4,800 crore in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) from the deal, as disclosed by its management in an analyst call on 1 May, 2025.
This translates to over 14% of the company’s FY25 revenue and nearly a fifth of its Ebitda that year, making the deal vital for the company, and in turn, the Adani Group.
One immediate fallout if Bangladesh were to scrap the Adani Power project would be on the company’s cash flow. Adani Power is the cash cow of the Adani Group, which has 13 listed companies. Adani Power generated ₹18,711 crore in free cash from operations in the year ended March 2025, a tad higher than the ₹17,200 crore generated by Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone.
The Adani Group did not comment on what the potential financial impact of a possible termination of the deal would be.
“Bangladesh pays a relatively high tariff of 14.87 taka per unit, higher than alternative sources, leading to scrutiny by a national review committee that has alleged corruption, collusion, and fraud in the original deal signed under the Sheikh Hasina government,” analysts at brokerage JM Financial noted in a report on 2 January. Bangladesh has also accused Adani Power of not passing on Indian tax incentives that should have lowered tariffs, and has disputed coal cost calculations, alleging prices higher than market levels, the analysts noted.
Cash flows from the 1.6GW Godda plant remain exposed to payment delays, power purchase agreement renegotiation risk, and legal uncertainty following scrutiny by the Bangladesh High Court, despite recent clearance of past dues, the analysts added.
Cost inflation allegations
A five-member NRC, which was set up by the interim government of Bangladesh to review power purchase agreements signed with six independent companies, reported that the country was paying more to Adani under the deal than what it should.
“For the Adani Godda imported power contract, we conservatively estimate overpricing of 4-5 cents per kWh, which means the price being paid is roughly 50% higher than what it should be,” the NRC noted in its report.
“Benchmarking undertaken by the NRC shows that the approved tariff for Adani was the highest among comparable electricity import contracts from India at the time of signing and that subsequent tariff escalation exceeded peer contracts by a substantial margin,” it further noted. “This divergence indicates that elevated costs were not an inherent feature of cross-border power trade, but the outcome of specific contractual choices.”
The five-member panel, which authored the report, consists of Moyeenul Islam Chowdhury, a former high court judge; Abdul Hasib Chowdhury, a professor at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology; Ali Ashfaq, a former partner of KPMG Bangladesh; Mushtaq Husain Khan, professor of economics at SOAS University of London and Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank Dhaka office.
Emails and text messages to Khan and Ashfaq went unanswered.
A spokesperson for the Adani Group said that it has not received any communication regarding the review committee report and neither the said report has been made available to the company. Hence, they declined to offer any specific comment regarding the findings of the report. “At no point in time were we approached by any Bangladesh authority to provide our viewpoint or share any inputs,” the spokesperson said.
“Adani Power is a key partner in Bangladesh’s energy sector, meeting about 10% of the country’s power demand. We supply reliable, high quality and amongst the most competitively priced (as compared to similar imported coal-based plants) power. We have continued to honour our supply commitment despite large receivables, when many other generators have cut back or even stopped supplies,” the spokesperson further said, adding that the company urges the Bangladesh government to liquidate its dues at the earliest as it was impacting the company’s operations.
Pending dues from Bangladesh had reached as high as $800 million last year. However, consistent payments from the country in recent months narrowed this deficit to only 15 days of delayed payments as of the October analyst call.
Adani Group’s latest setback in Bangladesh comes after last week’s development, where the US Securities and Exchange Commission sought permission from a federal court to personally email summons to Gautam Adani and his nephew, Sagar Adani, after the US market regulator claimed that India’s ministry of law and justice rejected its request twice in the last 14 months. The news led to Adani Group’s shares losing a tenth of their value on Friday, translating into a market capitalization loss of over ₹1.1 trillion.
On 20 November 2024, US prosecutors indicted eight executives, claiming $250 million in bribes were paid to unnamed Indian officials in exchange for favorable terms on solar power contracts awarded to Adani Green Energy Ltd and Azure Power Global Ltd, a New Delhi-headquartered firm.
Adani Group has denied any wrongdoing and said the allegations against its directors are baseless.