Bangladesh gets a head start over India in export of weight-loss drugs to emerging markets

Leveraging the country’s ‘least-developed country’ (LDC) status under World Trade Organization rules, Bangladeshi manufacturers have been producing and exporting low-cost copies of semaglutide for more than two years.

Under the WTO exemption, India’s eastern neighbour is not required to grant full patent exclusivity for pharmaceutical products until 2030, allowing local companies to reverse-engineer and manufacture patented drugs—a flexibility India lost in 2005 after becoming a WTO signatory.

Using this exemption, Bangladeshi firms have flooded non-patented markets in Latin America and Asia-Pacific with generic semaglutide well ahead of their Indian rivals.

Seven local companies make and sell the drug in Bangladesh and there are at least eight brands in the local market, including Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic.

Four of these seven companies export semaglutide, the largest being Beximco, Ziska Pharmaceuticals Ltd, ACI Ltd and Incepta Pharmaceuticals, Ravinder Singha, managing director of Firmlink Pharma, a cross-border sourcing company with operations in 15 countries in Latin America, APAC and Africa, told Mint.

To be sure, India has an edge over Bangladesh in exports to highly regulated markets such as the US and Europe, which comprise the bulk of India’s pharma exports. Entry into such regulated markets will depend on approvals as patents expire, and brand-building will be key, experts said.

The competition from Bangladesh is likely to be stiff in less regulated markets in the rest-of-the-world (RoW). “RoW competition is more severe from countries like Bangladesh, where regulations are not so strict, compliances are not monitored," Namit Joshi, chairman of the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India, or Pharmexcil, told Mint.

“Bangladesh would currently account for the biggest share of semaglutide exports to non-patented regions in Latin America and APAC (Asia Pacific) as their products are already tried and tested," Singha said.

India’s semaglutide race

Earlier this month, the Delhi High Court, in separate judgements, allowed Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Pharma to manufacture and export generic semaglutide to countries where innovator Novo Nordisk does not hold patent protection. However, both companies cannot sell the drug in India until Novo Nordisk loses its patent-exclusivity rights in the country in March 2026.

Dr Reddy’s was the first to challenge Novo Nordisk’s patent for semaglutide in the country in May, stating that it lacks novelty. The Delhi High Court, in a 2 December ruling, found prima facie merit in the patent challenge and allowed it to continue exporting to non-patent-holding countries. On 10 December, the court allowed Sun Pharma to manufacture and export the drug to non-patent countries.

Both companies have already started manufacturing generic semaglutide, their counsels told the court, with Dr Reddy’s having invested ₹1,000 crore in manufacturing, according to its submissions to the court.

Dr Reddy’s CEO Erez Israeli said in a media briefing in July that the company plans to launch semaglutide in 87 countries next year, including Canada, Brazil and Turkey, where the patent is expiring, as well as emerging markets where the innovator doesn’t have a patent.

Queries sent to Dr Reddy’s and Sun Pharma remained unanswered until press time.

Tried and tested

Exports from Bangladesh largely go to countries that don’t have patent rules in force. However, Bangladesh also exports the drug to countries that ask for consignments on compassionate grounds. It even exports to countries on a “named-patient" basis, where a hospital can request an unauthorised medicine directly from a manufacturer for a group of patients under its care.

The country has also synthesised tirzepatide, the chemical compound in Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drug Mounjaro, and has been manufacturing the drug for the past seven months, said Singha.

Tirzepatide brands are already a rage in Bangladesh, clocking revenue of $1 million so far, and said to be growing more than 1,000% on a monthly basis. Singha said that Bangladesh is a big exporter of tirzepatide to Pakistan, with demand outpacing supply.

“From the enquiries we have been getting for tirzepatide, we reckon that it is going to be one big hit drug in many markets across the world," said Singha.

Mounjaro was the top-selling drug in India in October and November, signalling its popularity. In Bangladesh, semaglutide’s annualised sales for Q2 were about $2.6 million, growing at 105%, according to Singha.

Bangladesh’s pharma exports of about $200-300 million are small, equivalent to about 1% of India’s pharmaceutical exports of $30.47 billion in FY25. However, Singha said Bangladesh already has reverse-engineering skills – as evidenced by these drugs – and is likely to pose stiff competition to India going forward.

“Bangladesh imports cheap raw materials and peptides from China, and has a lower labour cost, hence the fixed cost is much lower than India," said Joshi from Pharmexcil. This, in addition to its LDC status, gives it an edge.

EM viability

Analysts said that in this scenario, emerging market sales of semaglutide would not be sizeable for Indian companies.

“In terms of size, Brazil and Canada are the largest markets, followed by Middle Eastern markets, and partly north Africa," said Vishal Manchanda, a pharma analyst at Systematix Group. “India will have some scale advantage, given that we will have a domestic market which will offer us large [volumes]."

However, Manchanda added that in the case of weight-loss drugs, especially in more regulated markets, brand trust would trump price competitiveness. In this case, Indian manufacturers have an edge.

In the past year, 60% of India’s pharma exports went to destinations with stringent regulatory oversight, with the US accounting for about 34% and Europe about 19%, according to a commerce ministry statement dated December 17.

“We are the largest holder of US FDA-approved sites outside the US. So, on the scale of economy and formulation front, I think we are in a very strong position," said Joshi of Pharmexcil.

Given the increasing need for reliable supply chains, India’s position as a stable democracy, as opposed to Bangladesh’s recent political crises, also gives it an edge in the long run.