Too big to fail: Why IndiGo cancellations turned into a national crisis
Thousands of passengers were stranded—missing meetings, holidays and even weddings—as IndiGo cancelled more than 2,000 flights. Behind the chaos lies a deeper structural failure in India’s aviation market.
An unprecedented crisis gripped India’s aviation sector in the past week, leaving thousands of passengers stranded as flights were first delayed and then cancelled. At the centre of the disruption is IndiGo, which has cancelled more than 2,000 flights, blaming “unforeseen operational challenges."
In reality, the trigger, the introduction of the Crew and Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules, was hardly unforeseen. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) drafted revised norms in January 2024, gave airlines months to prepare with a phased rollout beginning July 2025, and scheduled the final phase for November. Yet IndiGo, operating on a lean staffing model designed to minimize costs, was unprepared.
Dominance disaster
The current crisis underscores deeper structural issues in India’s aviation industry. Once an eight-carrier market in 2014, the domestic sector is now dominated by four airlines: IndiGo, Air India Group, SpiceJet and Akasa Air. Despite India being the world’s fifth-largest domestic aviation market, just two airlines control over 90% of it—IndiGo alone holds roughly 65%.
Naturally, this translates into IndiGo operating at least 50% of the flights in the country. A Mint analysis of the winter schedule of approved domestic flights shows IndiGo operating 56% of the flights on domestic routes for the week ending 14 December. This means that the operational challenges at IndiGo will continue to disproportionately affect the flight operations.
Moreover, IndiGo’s fleet towers over other airlines so significantly that they lack the capacity to absorb the passengers, leaving the entire system paralyzed.
Foreseeable failure
What appeared to be a rapid collapse of the entire system was an oversight issue. IndiGo cited “a multitude of unforeseen operational challenges", primarily crew shortages triggered by new FDTL norms—the rules designed to prevent pilot fatigue by capping flying hours and mandating rest periods, for the mass cancellation.
However, the rollout was hardly unforeseen. Discussions around it began in early 2024, when DGCA drafted revised FDTL rules in January 2024. After airlines raised concerns about operational strain and insufficient preparation time, the regulator announced a phased implementation beginning July 2025, with the final phase set for November, giving airlines months to prepare.
IndiGo, whose business model is based on lean staff and short turnaround time, failed to adequately prepare for the new norms. The crew crisis has emerged even as IndiGo made a financial rebound, posting profits of ₹8,172 crore in FY24 and ₹7,258 crore in FY25 after years of losses. As per the latest available data reported by media, over 60% of total 1,232 flight cancellations in November was reported due to new norms.
The situation escalated in December with over 2,000 flight cancellations so far. A break-up of reasons is not available currently. Given IndiGo’s dominant position, the government has had to roll back some of the rules until February only for IndiGo to ease the crisis.
Pilot paralysis
IndiGo has been operating on lean crew for years, making it a successful low-cost carrier. While this model worked for airlines, there has been concern around pilot fatigue and safety of flight operations, which led to the government to apply new rules, which included increasing mandatory weekly rest from 36 hours to 48 consecutive hours, separation of leaves from the rest period and limiting night landings.
This meant either airlines get more staff or cut down the number of operational flights. IndiGo's failure lay in its staffing strategy.
The airline maintained 14-15 pilots per aircraft in FY23, but this fell to 12-13 by FY25. This was a result of fewer hiring of pilots even as the fleet increased in size. Despite operating India's largest pilot pool of 5,456, the low ratio meant it wasn’t prepared to comply with the new rules without cancellations.
The Federation of Indian Pilots alleged IndiGo imposed a "hiring freeze" despite knowing revised FDTL norms would require more crew.
Too big to fail
As the entire aviation industry plunged into a crisis, the government found itself with no other choice but to offer extension of the implementation of the new rules. While this may help restore normalcy in a few days, the crisis exposed the near monopoly problem, or too big to fail, problem in the aviation industry. India is particularly exposed in this segment.
Among the world’s five largest domestic aviation markets, India stands out with a disproportionately high share (64%) held by the leading airline. In the US, Delta commands only 18%, China Southern's share sits at 16%. The UK comes close but its largest airline easyJet hasn’t crossed the 50% mark. IndiGo’s dominance means that operational issues are not just a company problem—they paralyze the entire system.
Indian domestic air traffic has grown rapidly, to 166.2 million passengers in FY25 from 69.8 million passengers in FY15. While the government continues to expand aviation infrastructure and promote air travel, the IndiGo crisis underscores the urgent need for greater competition, robust regulation, and measures to ensure safety without causing nationwide disruption.
Tanay Sukumar contributed to this story.
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