Netflix and Paramount Skydance have both sweetened their offers for Warner Discovery Bros. over the past month. It’s still anybody’s guess who will win the blockbuster takeover battle.
Users of online prediction markets now see this as a neck-and-neck race. As of Monday, Polymarket’s event-based contract was implying odds of 45% that Netflix gets the deal done, and a 37% chance that Paramount closes the acquisition. The probability of no deal being done by June 30, 2027 stood at 18%.
Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron’s.
On Jan. 17, Paramount’s implied chances of closing the deal stood at just 7%.
The odds have shifted for a couple of reasons. First, Netflix may find it difficult to get the regulatory clearance required to close the takeover. At a Judiciary Committee hearing earlier this month, several Republican and Democrat senators said they were worried the deal could lead to higher costs and less choice for consumers.
Second, Paramount has taken steps to enhance its hostile bid. The CBS owner said last week that it was enhancing its $30-a-share offer with a so-called ticking fee of 25 cents a share. The fee, which equates to about $650 million in cash each quarter, would be payable to Warner shareholders for each quarter the transaction hasn’t closed beyond the end of 2026.
All that may prompt a rethink for Warner. Members of the company’s board are considering reopening talks with Paramount after receiving the latest amended offer, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
Warner didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from Barron’s.
Netflix agreed in December to buy Warner’s studios and streaming assets for $27.75, with the Discovery Global cable assets being spun out to investors. It made the bid all-cash last month.
Paramount tried to one-up the video streamer by making a hostile tender offer for all of Warner Discovery. The company has repeatedly told investors its bid is superior because it believes the Discovery shares would have no equity value.
Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com