A year of turbulence behind, a year of repair ahead for India’s top airlines

Mumbai: The past 12 months have likely been the most challenging yet for the chief executive officers (CEOs) of India’s two largest airlines, IndiGo and Air India, which together control about 91% of the country’s aviation market.

In September 2022, Tata Sons appointed Campbell Wilson as CEO of Air India to revive the debt-laden carrier it had acquired from the government earlier that year, under a five-year phased transformation plan. That effort suffered a blow in June 2025, when flight AI171 from Ahmedabad to London crashed seconds after take-off, killing more than 240 people.

Later, Wilson acknowledged that 2025 had been an “exceptionally difficult year." The challenges ranged from the June crash to the financial fallout of a month-long airspace closure by Pakistan after an Islamabad-sponsored terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on 22 April. This forced Air India to operate longer, circuitous routes over the Arabian Sea. In October, Campbell said the airspace closure could have cost the airline up to ₹4,000 crore if it continued for a year.

Four months before Wilson started in his new role with Air India, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, which runs India’s largest airline IndiGo, hired Pieter Elbers to ramp up operations and expand internationally. Poor preparedness in implementing Flight Duty Time Limitations—aviation safety rules designed to prevent fatigue by ensuring longer rest periods for pilots and crew—led to hundreds of flight cancellations, severely inconveniencing passengers and forcing the airline to cut its December-quarter earnings forecast. Analysts expect full-year revenue and profitability to be hit as well.

Elbers and Wilson share several similarities in how they arrived at the helm of India’s two largest airlines. Both are global aviation executives, or expatriates, brought in as outsiders to apply international best practices to challenges that are uniquely Indian.

Wilson came from Singapore Airlines’ low-cost carrier Scoot. Singapore Airlines (SIA) holds a 25.1% stake in Air India. Elbers, a Dutch national, came from KLM, the flag carrier of the Netherlands.

Experts say that although both CEOs are expatriates, their approaches to India differ.

“The most obvious similarity between the two airline chiefs is that both are expats. Campbell Wilson and Pieter Elbers each brings the experience and skill required to steer their airlines forward," said Sanjay Lazar, aviation expert and chief executive of Avialaz Consulting.

“Where they differ, however, is in how they navigated India. Elbers visibly embraced the local culture, mingling widely, celebrating festivals, and even developing a fondness for Indian food. Wilson, by contrast, has remained low-key, professional and perhaps more reserved in the SIA-style, focusing on the job itself," Lazar said.

However, the challenges faced by the two airlines and their top executives differ.

The auto-to-steel conglomerate acquired Air India for ₹18,000 crore, including equity and debt, from the government. IndiGo was founded by Rahul Bhatia and his friend Rakesh Gangwal in 2006. The co-founders’ friendship soured after the airline went public in 2015, when Gangwal accused the latter of corporate governance lapses in late 2019. The two resolved their differences after a prolonged dispute. Gangwal resigned from the board in 2022 and, since then, has sold much of his holding, cutting his stake from 37% to 5.85%.

Wilson faces a significantly more challenging task at Air India, as he inherited a privatized public sector airline riddled with issues related to its older planes.

Privately held, Air India in FY25 reported a revenue of ₹78,636 crore and a loss of ₹10,859 crore. In Elber’s first year, IndiGo reported revenue of ₹54,446 crore in FY23 and a loss of ₹317 crore. In FY25, the airline reported revenue of ₹80,803 crore and a profit of ₹7,253 crore.

Air India is grappling with the refurbishment of ageing aircraft, seat replacements, and delays in fleet upgrades due to supply chain constraints, pushing revival timelines back by months.

When Wilson joined, he outlined a five-year transformation plan to turn around the airline. This included addressing legacy issues like maintenance and scheduling, which are now complete. The airline in 2022 committed over $400 million for refurbishing its entire legacy wide-body fleet, comprising 27 Boeing B787-8 and 13 B777 aircraft.

The second phase focused on integrating AirAsia and Air India Express, separately merging Vistara with Air India—a process completed successfully in 2024—and building the platforms, processes, and systems needed to drive operational excellence.

At present, the airline is expanding its fleet, with one plane delivery expected every week starting in 2026. The airline had placed orders in 2023 for 470 planes from Boeing and Airbus, followed by an additional purchase of more than 100 jets last December.

For Air India, 2026 will effectively serve as a base year to consolidate before the big leap forward, Lazar said, adding that Wilson faces a significantly tougher task at the storied airline.

“His (Wilson's) turnaround effort VIHAAN was dealt a severe blow by the unexpected tragedy in June, pushing the airline’s transformation plan back by at least a year. Air India continues to grapple with aircraft shortages, supply chain issues, seat and spare-part constraints, but things are looking better in 2026-27," he said.

When Elbers took charge of IndiGo, he inherited a profitable and operationally strong airline. The airline commands a 65% market share in India. He was tasked with driving international expansion, a role he excelled at. The airline, which ordered about 500 wide-body aircraft, with deliveries scheduled until 2030, receives an aircraft every week. In addition, it has added the IndiGo business class, IndiGoStretch. The airline, long seen as a model low-cost carrier, is now preparing to offer a full suite of services, though it remains unclear how this shift will play out.

Fast forward to the present day: the airline, which prided itself on punctuality, cancelled over 4,500 flights in the first week of December due to poor crew rostering, pilot shortages, and its lack of preparedness to implement the new safety norms. The regulatory overhang has kept investors on the fence. IndiGo's shares fell about 14% from between 1 December and 15 December.

Experts remain cautious on the outlook for both airlines.

“IndiGo enters the next phase facing several near-term challenges, mending strained ties with the DGCA (directorate general of civil aviation) and MoCA (ministry of civil aviation), rebuilding depleted pilot buffers, managing a structurally higher CASK (cost per available seat kilometer), and defending its dominance, as rivals move into slots reallocated by regulators," said Gagan Dixit, senior vice-president of aviation and oil & gas at Elara Securities.

IndiGo has to hire 158 pilots by 10 February and another 742 by December next year. It has submitted its hiring plan to the DGCA, according to a document reviewed by Mint. The airline will hire 300 captains and 600 junior first officers over the next 12 months. Elbers, in an earlier interview with Mint, also said that it is changing how it pays for its aircraft. Instead of mostly selling planes and leasing them back, the CEO said it is now choosing to own more planes or take them on long-term finance leases.

While this adds assets to the airline’s balance sheet, it also raises a concern. If demand falls while capacity remains high, the airline will still have to keep these aircraft, unlike the sale-and-leaseback model, where planes can be returned when not needed.

For nearly 20 years, selling planes to leasing firms and renting them back helped IndiGo make money and grow its fleet quickly. Now, the airline plans to own or finance-lease 40% of its aircraft by 2030, compared with 18% today.

Adding to their woes are rising fuel costs, a major risk to profitability.

Fuel costs are rising again, creating fresh pressure for airlines. Jet fuel prices in India have increased by about 6% quarter-on-quarter, moving up from the lows seen earlier in FY26, according to a JP Morgan report dated 5 December. This comes at a time when demand is only recovering modestly, the analysts said. According to the report, every 1% rise in fuel costs can reduce profit before tax by around 3% for IndiGo. A weak rupee worsens the situation, as aviation fuel is priced in dollars, further increasing costs. While fares, especially on international routes, are improving, the report cautions that this increase is unlikely to fully offset the impact of higher fuel and foreign exchange costs.

On the flip side, the airline has some opportunities, according to the Elara analyst. “India’s air travel demand continues to surge, competitors lack spare aircraft, a tighter capacity environment could support fares if the macro improves, and steady Airbus deliveries of around 50 aircraft a year keep IndiGo the only airline with dependable narrowbody growth once crew constraints ease," Dixit said.

For Air India, Dixit said that it must grapple with the complexity of refurbishing legacy cabins at scale, lifting service consistency across a diverse fleet, competing head-on with Gulf carriers and IndiGo in key international markets, and unlocking still-elusive merger synergies.

Beyond competition with IndiGo, the airline also faces pressure from Akasa Air, which has scaled rapidly since launching three years ago. Backed by the late Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Ranjan Pai and Azim Premji, Akasa has overtaken SpiceJet to become India’s third-largest airline.

But there may be some positives for the Tata-run airline, after all.

“Its outlook, however, is improving as more new aircraft and refurbished interiors enter service, and the fully integrated group begins to leverage network strengths, which would be premium traffic from Air India-Vistara and feed from AI Express. Any softening of IndiGo’s dominance due to FDTL or regulatory constraints opens a small but tangible window for Air India to gain ground," said Dixit.

Aviation experts also believe that both airlines have to regain the trust of passengers as they enter 2026.

“2026 will be a year of repair as much as growth. While operational disruptions have largely been stabilized, trust of thousands of passengers has been broken, and issues around corporate governance have surfaced and need to be addressed," said Lazar. He believes that a leader of Elbers’ calibre is likely to focus on restoring credibility and ensuring the airline emerges stronger, even if they have to sacrifice near-term growth.

“At IndiGo, an excessive focus on cost-cutting has contributed to operational stress, while at Air India, the push for rapid fleet expansion came without first stabilizing core operations. In doing so, both carriers lost sight of the principle that 'slow and steady wins the race', and must now work to regain passenger trust in the future in 2026," said Amit Singh, CEO of Safety Matters and a former pilot.

Singh, who worked with Wilson during his stint at Scoot, and who was the chief of Pilot Training at IndiGo more than a decade ago, has also questioned expat leadership.

“The global experience they brought appears to have come with a belief that missteps are acceptable as long as profitability is achieved. What both airlines really need is stronger organizational foundations and a culture that prioritizes operational resilience alongside growth."