Apple Inc is poised to surpass Samsung Electronics Co and become the world's largest smartphone maker this year for the first time in more than a decade. The surge is driven by the strong debut of the new iPhone 17 series and a wave of consumers upgrading their devices, according to Counterpoint Research.
The latest iPhone 17 models, launched in September, have been a major hit both in the United States and in Apple’s other critical market, China, leading to double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both regions, Bloomberg reported.
Blockbuster debut of iPhone 17 series
The iPhone 17 series, comprising four models, has enticed more people to upgrade their smartphones. The company's latest offering, iPhone Air, marketed as the world's thinnest iPhone, saw people waiting in long queues to get their hands on the device.
The US-based company is also benefiting from a cooling of US-China trade tensions and a depreciating dollar, which has led to more purchases in emerging markets, the researchers added.
Apple vs Samsung
The surge in growth, which is expected to push Apple ahead of longtime rival Samsung Electronics this year, comes as iPhone shipments are projected to rise 10% in 2025, compared with a 4.6% for Samsung.
The overall global smartphone market is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2025, with Apple forecasted to claim a market share of 19.4%. It will be the first time since 2011 that the company takes the No. 1 position in the smartphone market.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang.
The analyst also said that the market is being bolstered by the rising sales of secondhand iPhones, alongside new upgrades.
“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years,” Wang added.
What will Apple launch next?
Looking ahead, Wang is optimistic about Apple's long-term dominance, forecasting the company to remain the No 1 phone seller through 2029.
The upcoming 2026 debut of a foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e is poised to help Apple sustain this growth. The company is also expected to follow those models with a major iPhone design revamp in 2027, as Bloomberg News has previously reported.
Apple said last month that sales are growing faster than the company anticipated, with the holiday quarter poised to approach a record $140 billion in revenue, Bloomberg reported.
