NEW DELHI: Bharti Airtel is expected to report healthy growth for the March-quarter (Q4FY26), driven by subscriber additions, rising data consumption, and continued traction in its enterprise and home broadband businesses, analysts said.
However, two fewer days in the quarter and the absence of tariff hikes are likely to weigh on growth in the core mobile business and keep average revenue per user (Arpu) largely flat. Brokerage estimates peg Airtel’s Arpu at ₹259 per month for the quarter.
The March quarter had fewer billing days because February had 28 days, which could marginally affect sequential growth. Airtel’s trend is expected to mirror that of peer Reliance Jio, which reported a flat sequential Arpu of ₹214.
Arpu refers to the average monthly revenue earned from each mobile customer and is a key indicator of telecom spending.
Bharti Airtel is scheduled to report its March-quarter and FY26 earnings on Wednesday. The company is expected to post a 15.2% year-on-year (YoY) and 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise in revenue from operations to ₹55,150 crore, according to the average estimates of five brokerage houses.
In the December quarter, it reported steady growth, with revenue rising 19.6% year-on-year to ₹53,982 crore while net profit fell 55% to ₹6,631 crore.
“We estimate 372 million mobile users at end of 4Q, leading to 1.8% qoq improvement in cellular revenues (for Bharti Airtel). We estimate ‘Homes business’ revenues to increase 8% qoq as Bharti continues to gradually expand its FWA (fixed wireless access) presence and model enterprise revenues to improve 2% qoq,” analysts at BofA Securities said in a note dated 3 April.
Africa revenues
The telecom operator is also expected to benefit from growth in its Africa business. In the March quarter, Airtel Africa reported a 33% YoY increase in revenue to $1.75 billion. Analysts, however, expect the company’s direct-to-home (DTH) business to remain under pressure.
On the profitability front, Bharti Airtel is expected to report a 33% YoY decline in net profit to ₹7,385 crore due to a high base in the year-ago period, when the company booked a tax credit of ₹2,892 crore. Sequentially, net profit is expected to rise 9.5%.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) are projected to increase 15.6% YoY and 1.6% sequentially to ₹31,222 crore in the March quarter, supported by revenue growth.
“Daily revenue run-rate will see an uptick influenced by upgrades to 5G/4G, prepaid-to-postpaid conversion, and higher data usage,” brokerage house IIFL Securities said in a note dated 6 April.
In the December quarter, the company added 4.35 million mobile users, taking its India subscriber base to 368.5 million. Analysts expect Airtel to add another 3-4 million users in the March quarter.
Key triggers
Investors will closely watch the company’s commentary on dividends, the proposed rejig in Airtel Africa shareholding, capital expenditure, the data centre business and the outlook on tariff hikes.
In a note dated 30 March, brokerage house Axis Capital estimated a dividend of ₹35 per share, compared with ₹16 in FY25.
In an exchange filing on 10 May, Bharti Airtel said its board would also consider a reorganisation of the shareholding framework of subsidiary companies, including Airtel Africa plc, “which may result in consolidation/acquisition of shares of such subsidiary companies, the consideration of which may be discharged through issuance of equity shares of the company on a preferential basis and/or cash”.
Following the announcement, Bharti Airtel shares closed 4.1% lower on Monday at ₹1,759.8 on the National Stock Exchange amid concerns over a potential cash outgo for acquiring shares in Airtel Africa plc. Shares traded marginally higher at ₹1,765.1 apiece today amid a 1% decline in the Nifty 50.
On capital expenditure, analysts expect the company to step up investments in data centres and its proposed NBFC (non-banking financial company) business.
“For FY26, we expect Bharti Airtel's India core business capex to be ₹271 bn ( ₹27,100 crore), while for FY27/28 we expect average capex of ₹300 bn ( ₹30,000 crore), which also has a possibility of increasing further,” Morgan Stanley said in a note dated 5 April.