Boeing Co on Tuesday said it values the aerospace and defence market at $8.7 trillion over the next decade. This includes the $3.1-trillion projected demand for commercial airplanes through 2028 as operators replace older jets with more capable and fuel-efficient models, and expand their fleets to accommodate the steady rise in air travel across emerging and established markets.
“A strong commercial aviation industry, stable defence spending and the need to service all platforms throughout their lifecycle are driving a growing aerospace and defence market," Boeing said in its Market Outlook that was released in France today during the Paris Aero Show.
The latest commercial market outlook by Boeing Co shows growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jets, valued at $6.8 trillion over the next two decades and up 3% from a year ago.
The global commercial airplane fleet will also sustain the need for aviation services valued at $9.1 trillion, leading to a total commercial market opportunity of $16 trillion through 2038, Boeing said in a statement.
The Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) also projects $2.5 trillion of defence and space opportunities during the next decade as governments modernise military platforms and systems, pursue new technologies and capabilities, and accelerate exploration from sea to space.
The projected spending – spanning military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft and other products – continues to be global in nature with 40% of expenditure expected to originate outside of the United States, Boeing added in a statement.
“Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion," said Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth. "The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades and a massive ecosystem of lifecycle solutions to maintain and support it," Tinseth added.
Of the new airplane deliveries, Boeing said 44% will go towards replacing aging aircraft while the rest will accommodate traffic growth.
“Together, the new jets support an industry where passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6% and cargo traffic will grow an average 4.2%. Factoring in the new airplanes and the jets that would remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038," Boeing said.
According to Boeing’s outlook, the biggest airplane segment remains single-aisles such as the 737 MAX, as operators are projected to demand 32,420 new airplanes in this segment. However, Boeing Co’s 737 Max planes have been grounded by regulators worldwide after two fatal crashes involving the jet plane.
In the wide-body segment, Boeing forecasts demand for 8,340 new passenger airplanes valued at more than $2.6 trillion over the next 20 years. “Widebody demand is spearheaded in part by a significant wave of older airplanes that will need to be replaced beginning in a few years. Bolstering the demand for larger aircraft, operators are expected to need 1,040 new large production freighters over the forecast period," Boeing added.