Bumper earnings from Nvidia could drive another stock market rally in US, say JPMorgan Chase traders

Yet another bumper earnings readout from Nvidia Corp. may be all it takes to reignite Wall Street’s appetite for US stocks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk, led by Head of US Market Intelligence Andrew Tyler, said in a report before markets opened Thursday that the results could fuel another bullish shift toward US stocks and overshadow recent hand-ringing about when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. 

That’s exactly what happened, with a fresh bout of excitement about the impacts of artificial intelligence technology sending the S&P 500 Index up more than 2% on its best day since November. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Stock Index climbed over 3%.

“This may be a catalyst, not only for the Street to get materially more bullish on US equities, but also to see a further decoupling of stocks and yields since the Magnificent 7 are proving to deliver on earnings expectations irrespective of the interest rate environment,” Tyler wrote.

Stock market investors were eagerly awaiting the Nvidia results, largely in hopes that it would rekindle the sentiment that helped drive last year’s rally. 

While the S&P 500 hit fresh record highs this year, the advance had stalled recently after hotter-than-expected consumer- and producer-price readings caused traders to dial back their expectations for interest rate cuts. 

“It’s kind of a microcosm of the market,” said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. “We’ve been wondering with the market erupting like it has off of most factors, whether earnings can meet the moment. The beat goes on with Nvidia.”

JPMorgan’s Tyler also reiterated the trading desk’s “tactically bullish” view on stocks, citing strong economic growth, positive earnings, and a readiness by the Fed to ease policy.

Tyler and his colleagues on the trading desk said a near-term pullback could be possible before February closes out given the negative month-end seasonality. 

But they said the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop would have to deteriorate for a more substantial decline. They favour long positions in technology and parts of cyclical sectors including large-cap banks, credit card issuers, homebuilders, transportation companies, and retailers.