Oversupply is temporary, growing India will absorb it: JSW Steel CEO

Domestic steel prices are currently under pressure despite safeguard duties on imports, underscoring the industry’s tightrope between short-term surplus and long-term expansion. Acharya’s outlook suggests bullishness on India’s growth-led demand cycle even as the global market grapples with cheap imports and trade protection measures.

“I am not at all worried about the capacity. Yes, capacities are lumpy; so when they come in a few months' gap, you may see a little bit of supply exceeding demand, which always then evens out," said Acharya, adding, "But I do not see any reason for concern at all."

Since the beginning of fiscal year 2026 (FY26), China’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have risen 4.5% in rupee terms, while domestic prices fell 5% despite a 12% safeguard duty, according to an Elara Capital report of October. China’s HRC prices act as a lead indicator for global steel prices.

India had imposed a temporary safeguard duty in April in a bid to shield local producers from cheap Chinese imports. The duty period is expected to expire this month.

Steel capacity doesn’t grow evenly every year; it comes in big chunks, said the CEO. At the same time, India’s steel demand is growing around 9% annually, meaning an extra 25-30 million tonnes (mt) of demand in the next two years, he said.

“But since any new projects announced now will take four to five years to start production, the current pipeline won’t be enough to meet this demand. That’s why adding more capacity now is important to keep up with the country’s growing steel needs," Acharya said.

Roadmap to 50 mtpa target

JSW Steel, India's largest steelmaker by domestic capacity, aims to achieve 50 mt of annual domestic steel manufacturing capacity by 2030, equivalent to about one-third of the total steel consumed by India in FY25.

JSW Steel has a pipeline to reach 41.9 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by FY28 from 34.2 mtpa as of now. An upcoming electric arc furnace (EAF) project at Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh will take the capacity to 42.9 mtpa by FY29. Beyond that, the company is evaluating options to expand capacity across its existing facilities at Vijayanagar, Bhushan Power & Steel (BPSL), and DRI plant at Salav in Maharashtra, along with a major greenfield steel plant at Paradip, Odisha.

Progress on POSCO joint venture

JSW Steel’s 50-50 joint venture with South Korean steelmaker POSCO is progressing steadily, with land identification and documentation underway in Odisha.

The two steelmakers announced plans to set up a 6 mtpa plant in August, likely in Odisha. This would be POSCO’s third attempt at entering the Indian market. The two companies intend to spend a total of ₹70,000-80,000 crore ($8-9 billion) to set up the plant, Mint had reported earlier.

“We are looking at options for pieces of land in Odisha, depending on the proximity to iron ore, city and the port," Acharya said, adding that the 900 acres of land it came to own through the acquisition of a company Resources Pvt. Ltd could be one of the options. The company aims to finalize the land in the coming six months, after which it will move for environmental and forest clearances before starting the project.

He said POSCO brings strong technological capabilities. The South Korean steelmaker has not been able to set up a greenfield in its earlier attempts, but that is where JSW Steel will “bring in the expertise of local presence and with the ability to do project execution faster", Acharya said.

Policy support and trade protection

Apart from just the proposed safeguard duty from Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), there is need for additional trade protection measures to safeguard domestic producers from dumping, particularly as India continues to account for a large share of global steel demand growth, JSW Steel's CEO said.

The steelmaker expects the finance ministry’s approval for a three-year safeguard by November. The DGTR has recommended a staggered rate on imports of hot-rolled flat products of non-alloy and other alloy steel: 12% for the first year, 11.5% for second year and 11% for third year.

“Other trade measures that could supplement this kind of a safeguard which is existing for products either through anti-dumping or through any other process of trade measures country-wise or otherwise," Acharya said.

He said the call for policy support was in line with various countries' reactions to the ongoing trade conflicts. For instance, the EU (European Union), which has country-based import quotas, has proposed to reduce the quotas and increase import duties. Trade restrictions such as tariffs, quotas and import duties by some of the key markets could result in diversion of steel shipments to India, Acharya said.

“We are the fastest growing economy in the world and therefore… the basic demand in the country is high, and there are many looking at India as an opportunity," said Acharya, asserting that as a country, India should allow trade, but not dumping.