Mayo Sees ‘Unique Window’ for Bank M&A After Comerica Deal

(Bloomberg) -- The year’s biggest US bank deal is sparking a wave of speculation about further consolidation among lenders, with an increasingly friendly regulatory climate seen as setting the stage for more tie-ups.

Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy Comerica Inc. for about $11 billion in stock to create the ninth-largest bank in the US. To veteran bank watcher Mike Mayo, it’s just the start: The Wells Fargo & Co. analyst views the next 12 months as “a unique window of opportunity for banks that want to pursue mergers of size.”

Industry experts have been anticipating a pickup in bank M&A, expecting regional lenders to capitalize on a more benign regulatory stance under President Donald Trump and smoother antitrust approvals. It’s a pivot from the Biden administration’s more rigid attitude, and paves the way for a revival in M&A activity that cooled in the wake of the 2023 failures of Silicon Valley Bank and others in the sector.

“The shackles are being taken off of banks to act more in the interest of shareholders,” Mayo said in an interview, citing the regulatory backdrop. “Banks can dream the dream for potential acquisitions.”

Mayo’s team, which includes analyst Timur Braziler, cited BankUnited Inc., First Horizon Corp. and Banc of California Inc. as possible takeover targets. All three rose in trading on Monday, with the KBW Regional Banking Index climbing as much as 2.6%.

For Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Herman Chan, the deal trend is more likely to play out in certain geographic areas.  “The theme of larger regionals targeting higher—growth markets in Texas and the Southeast bode well for smaller banks that operate in those regions,” he said. In an interview with Bloomberg TV earlier Monday, Chan flagged KeyCorp and M&T Bank Corp.

Read: Regional Banks Are Ripe for Mergers as DC Warms to Consolidation

Like Mayo, Baird analyst David George named Memphis-based First Horizon as a top takeover pick. So did the research team at Stephens Bank, which also has Tupelo, Mississippi-based Cadence Bank on its list among lenders in the South. Elsewhere, Stephens cited Webster Financial Corp. and Flagstar Financial Inc. as potential targets among banks in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast region, as well as Wintrust Financial Corp. in the Midwest region.

Among other large banking deals this year, Synovus Financial Corp announced a sale to Pinnacle Financial Partners for about $8.4 billion in late July. Earlier in 2025, FirstBank Holding Co. also announced a combination with PNC Financial Services Group, while Pacific Premier Bancorp agreed to merge with Columbia Banking System.

Investors will be listening for any M&A clues during earnings calls over the next few weeks. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Will kick things off on Oct. 14.

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