Multiplexes pipeline strong in Q1FY24; Bholaa, PS-2, F10, Jawan, and 3 other movies may clock ₹100 cr mark
3 min read 29 Mar 2023, 05:34 PM ISTBrokerage believes the pipeline for multiplexes look strong in the first quarter of FY24 as seven movies are likely to clock the ₹100 crore mark. These seven movies are — Bholaa, Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan, PS-2, Fast & Furious 10, Jawan, Adipurush, and Maidaan.
PremiumThe pipeline for the multiplexes segment looks promising in the first quarter of FY24. Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher expects seven movies to have the potential of a record ₹100 crore mark in Q1FY24. Some of these movies are -- Bholaa, Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan, PS-2, Fast & Furious 10, Jawan, Adipurush, and Maidaan. Following this, the brokerage is optimistic about PVR stock.
According to Prabhudas, in the fourth quarter of FY23, while 5 movies (3 are regional) have clocked the Rs1 billion mark, Bollywood performance has been sub-par as except for Pathaan and Tu Jhoothi Mein Makkar, none of the other movies have done well.
But, Q1 of FY24 looks encouraging for the segment.
Jinesh Joshi – Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher said, "the pipeline for 1QFY24 looks encouraging as 7 movies have made it to our potential Rs1 billion slate. In comparison, 5/3 (excluding Bholaa) movies were in our list for 3QFY23/4QFY23 respectively. Though our strike rate in estimating the Rs1 billion slate has been sub-par/average (see exhibit below), pipeline for 1QFY24 has quite a few highly anticipated movies with big star cast."
"We thus expect good footfall recovery in 1QFY24 versus the last 2 quarters," Joshi added.
Bholaa is the latest upcoming movie in multiplexes. Set to release on March 30th, this movie is a remake of the South hit Kaithi starring Ajay Devgan. The movie will get an extended weekend run due to Ram Navami.
There are two movies ready to release in April month.
The next in line would be Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan --- starring Bollywood's bhaijaan Salman Khan along with Pooja Hegde and Ram Charam whose movie RRR recently bagged an Oscars. The movie will hit the cinemas on the occasion of EID on April 21st.
Further, Ponniyin Selvan - Part 2 (PS-2) is a Telugu action-adventure movie, packed with big names such as Vikram, Karthi, Jayam Ravi, and Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. The PS part 2 will release on April 28th. The first part of PS saw strong demand and netted approximately ₹2.6 billion oddly.
In May, there is one movie lined up and it would be from the Fast & Furious franchisee. Fast & Furious 10, starring Vin Diesel and Jason Momoa, will release on May 19th. The previous Fast & Furious 9 which hit the cinemas in 2021, was impacted due to Covid pandemic. However, its previous franchises such as F7 and F8 have netted about ₹1 billion and ₹0.9 billion.
June will be a busy month with three movies queued for release.
In June, starring the Badshah of Bollywood, Shah Rukh Khan -- Jawan is set to release on the 2nd of the month. Followed by Adipurush, a film based on Ramayana made with a budget of ₹6 billion, on June 16th. Lastly, Ajay Devgan will enter the cinema with his second most-awaited movie Maidaan on June 23rd.
In addition, Prabhudas' analyst said, there are many fillers (may not be a HIT or an outright DUD) like 1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol-3 2) Transformers: Rise of the beasts 3) The Flash, and 4) Satya Prem Ki Katha (releasing on 29th June and hence spill-over expected) which should aid collections.
With this, Prabhudas is bullish on PVR shares.
The analyst said, "PVR trades at attractive valuations 11.3x/9.0x our FY24E/FY25E EBITDA estimates and we retain BUY on the stock with a TP of Rs2,096 (15.5x FY24E merged entity EBITDA)."
On Wednesday, on BSE, PVR closed at ₹1,516.30 apiece up by 1.4%. The company's market cap is over ₹14,852 crore.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
