NEW DELHI: Telecom operator Reliance Jio Infocomm is expected to post steady subscriber additions for the March quarter (Q4FY26), but the absence of tariff hikes and a shorter quarter are likely to cap growth, a trend analysts expect across the sector.
Reliance Jio, the telecom arm of Jio Platforms, will report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on 24 April alongside parent Reliance Industries Ltd.
“Reliance Jio is expected to add 5 million subscribers q-o-q (quarter-on-quarter) to 520 million, with Arpu (average revenue per user) likely to grow by 1% q-o-q to ₹216/month, led by 5G FWA (fixed wireless access) addition,” brokerage house Centrum said in a note dated 5 April.
Arpu, a key industry metric that tracks average revenue earned per user, is seen inching up modestly as operators lean on premiumization rather than price hikes.
On a standalone basis, Centrum estimates Jio will report ₹33,529 crore revenue from operations, up 2.4% sequentially and 11.7% year-on-year. Net profit is projected to rise 2.8% quarter-on-quarter and 11% annually to ₹7,371 crore.
Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom operator by market share, accounts for the bulk of Jio Platforms’ business. In the December quarter, it reported steady growth, with revenue rising 11.8% year-on-year and net profit up 10.7%.
The March quarter is seasonally weaker, with February having fewer days, while delays in tariff increases have further limited upside. Jio, however, ruled out near-term tariff hikes in its previous earnings call, signalling confidence in organic Arpu growth led by rising 5G usage.
Scale matters
Analysts say that in the absence of pricing action, telecom operators are relying on premiumization—migration from 2G to 4G/5G and from 4G to 5G, higher postpaid additions, and rising data consumption—to sustain growth.
Jio’s Arpu rose about 1.1% sequentially in the December quarter to ₹213.7, continuing a roughly 1% quarterly growth trend over the past year, constrained in part by promotional 5G offers.
By comparison, Bharti Airtel’s Arpu stood at ₹259 in the December quarter, about 21% higher than Jio’s, while Vodafone Idea reported a 3% sequential increase to ₹172.
In a January note, analysts at Jefferies said Jio is pushing high-data users towards 5G by bundling it with plans offering 2GB of daily data, boosting consumption and aiding monetisation. The scale-up of FWA in home broadband is also supporting 5G revenue growth.
Jio’s subscriber base stood at about 515 million at the end of December, including 13.5 million fibre homes and 11.5 million 5G FWA connections, according to CLSA estimates.
Beyond connectivity, Jio’s digital services business, spanning cloud, managed services, content, and devices, is gaining traction. Citi estimates non-connectivity revenue at ₹14,100 crore in FY25, annualizing to over ₹17,000 crore in FY26, raising its contribution to about 12% of Jio Platforms’ consolidated revenue from 8% two years ago.
Investors will also watch management commentary on Jio Platforms’ planned listing, potential cost pressures from geopolitical tensions, and the timing of the next tariff hike.
“We are quite happy with the traction—1% (quarterly) increase in Arpu. Over the last year, it has gone up by almost 5-5.5%. We have certain handles to improve the Arpu while contributing more value to the customers and that's what we will continue to focus on,” said Anshuman Thakur, head of strategy at Reliance Jio, during an earnings call in January.
Jio Platforms, the digital arm of Reliance Industries Ltd, is also working on filing its draft red herring prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India.