Housing industry participants in the United States are increasingly forecasting divergence in the national housing outlook, USA Today reported.
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American told the publication the US housing market is now “two-speed” comprising regions that are growing and regions that have become too risky / expensive over the past few years.
In its report, Kushi wrote that less housing stock in the Northeast and Midwest US will keep “conditions relatively tight and price growth steadier”, while prices in the South and West US “remain soft”. In the coastal regions, it added that increased insurance and other costs could impact prices.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant also forecast higher prices in the Northeast and Midwest parts of the country, particularly in San Francisco and San Jose. While she expects areas such as Florida and Texas, and Seattle, Portland and Denver, to see “cooler” prices amid increased house stock and lower demand.
What are the mortgage rate estimates for 2026?
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US averaged 6.64% throughout 2025, as calculated in the first week of December, in line with forecasts made last year. Now, for 2026, the industry has forecast between 6-6.4% — a slight decrease.
Home prices in US to rise in 2026? Industry says…
Further, as per the report, most participants see housing prices increase in 2026, even by a few percent.
- Bright MLS' Sturtevant: 0.9% increase
- Mortgage Bankers Association: 0.3% decline.
- NAR: 4% increase
- Realtor.com: “Home prices will grow by 2.2%; however, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline slightly for a second consecutive year.”
The report did however note that buyers would have better “negotiating power” as more homes become available, improving affordability, said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com in his note. He added that “younger and first-time buyers will continue to face financial hurdles”.
