US-Iran bets mint millions on prediction markets; Donald Trump Jr linked to key platforms: Report

The largely unregulated world of prediction markets is seeing a massive surge in activity. These platforms allow users to place direct bets on world events, including US elections and military strikes.

According to Bloomberg, users recently saw significant gains by betting on the timing of U.S. strikes in Iran. Trades on Polymarket reached $529 million, while Kalshi recorded $36 million in bets regarding a regime change in Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

However, with only a digital wallet required and users able to remain anonymous, analysts have raised concerns about potential insider trading. One contract betting on 27 February, a day before the reported strike, generated over $25 million in volume. A $26,513 bet placed for Saturday, the largest ever by that account, reportedly returned more than $174,000, Bloomberg said.

Analysts at Bubblemaps SA found that six accounts made roughly $1 million in profits by betting on the exact date of the attack, 28 February (Saturday). Analytics firm Polysights said contracts tied to the potential overthrow of Iran’s supreme leader implied a 40% likelihood, but its data showed that 90% of accounts flagged for alleged insider trading supported the contract.

The Trump connection to prediction markets

Amid the surge in activity, questions have also emerged over ownership and affiliations within the sector.

According to a New York Times report, US President Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is associated with two of the largest prediction market platforms: Polymarket and Kalshi.

Trump Jr is both an investor and an unpaid advisor to Polymarket, and a paid advisor to Kalshi, the report said. It added that the Trump family's Truth Social has also announced plans to start its own Truth Predict.

Ethical questions loom amid loose regulations, no action

The report further noted that critics have long raised questions about the ethical lines crossed by the Trump family's ventures amid Donald Trump's second term as US President. It further noted that, despite the breaches, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not pursue enforcement action against Polymarket or Kalshi last year.

Trump Jr's proximity to power and the newest businesses in town making bank on information that only a few would know has also raised eyebrows, the report said, citing Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Centre for Applied Ethics, who told NYT that Trump Jr's involvement is “problematic”.

How has Trump Jr responded to allegations?

Andrew Surabian, a spokesman for Trump Jr., told the publication that the entrepreneur is limited to an advisory role at Polymarket and Kalshi, does not conduct trades on the platforms, and never interacts with the federal government on behalf of any company he has invested in or advises.

“He operates like any other businessman. The idea that Don, who has never worked in government in his life, should quit his job in the private sector and stop providing for his five children, just because his dad was elected president, is an absurd premise. The only conflict of interest that exists here is between the network of left-wing activists and their ideological allies in the media who keep using lies and baseless innuendo to smear Don,” Surabian said.

However, the report further noted that Trump Jr's involvement in companies is viewed as a benefit by companies. Case in point: Both Polymarket and Kalshi — rivals — have him as an advisor. It added that since Trump's re-election, at least seven other companies have approached his eldest son to join as either a board member, advisor or director.

Did Polymarket and Kalshi benefit from Trump Jr.'s association?

CEOs of Polymarket and Kalshi, which were under regulatory scrutiny, had their cases dropped after the CFTC chose not to pursue the issues. Both have now joined the commission's innovation council, created to help shape policy for cryptocurrency and prediction markets.

The NYT reported a pattern to the drop in cases. Kalshi was banned in 2023, sued in federal court and won in 2024, hired Trump Jr a week before Trump's inauguration and four months later saw the CFTC charges dropped in 2025. In a statement to the NYT, the company denied that links to the president's son helped. They said: “Donald Trump Jr. does not engage with government officials on Kalshi’s behalf. We have never asked him, nor has he ever intervened in court cases for us.”

Kalshi was established by financial analysts Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara in 2018 and has received funding from venture capital (VC) firms Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and Y Combinator, among others.

Polymarket agreed in 2022 to pay $1.4 million fine for failing to register as an online trading platform and was ordered to block US users. CEO Shayne Coplan's apartment was raided in 2024 amid a surge in bets about the US presidential election. In July 2025, the CFTC and Justice Department dropped their charges, and in August 2025, Trump Jr. invested in the company through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. A week later, Polymarket was cleared to restart services in the US.

Polymarket was founded by Coplan and has investment from a number of VC funds, including Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Trump Jr's 1789 Capital.

What is Truth Predict?

The report noted that the Trump family's company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), is close to joining the sector with Truth Predict.

Truth Predict will have Crypto.com as its partner in crypto ventures, and Truth Social users would be allowed to trade on topics including sports, inflation, interest rates, and gold and oil prices, NYT reported, citing a statement from TMTG.

Spokesperson Surabian told the NYT that Trump Jr. was not involved in the decision to create Truth Predict and is not part of the company’s day-to-day operations.

Trump Jr is also the sole trustee of his father’s trust, overseeing the president’s majority stake in the company. TMTG spokesperson Shannon Devine last year said Trump Jr is “highly engaged in the board’s work, as well as operations and strategy”.

In 2024, he earned $8,13,000 (largely stock) as a director of TMTG — around 25% of the company's annual revenue, the report said, citing US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings.