Home >Companies >People >Recovery could take 2-3 years: India Inc

The economic recovery will be protracted over the next two to three years, with some sectors such as auto expected to pick up immediately, while others, including micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and real estate, taking longer, said top Indian industrialists.

The recovery will be uneven as a large number of MSMEs may shut shop unless the Centre intervenes, Hero Corporate Service Pvt. Ltd chairman Sunil Kant Munjal said at the State Bank of India economic conclave on Friday.

“Overall recovery will take two to three years, but we will see some sectors come up very quickly. There are some important sectors with large multipliers and large potential for employment, which are still struggling and will not be able to recover in time. There is a need for intervention. The government should be prepared not just for monetary support, but also to provide two more doses of fiscal support sectorally and maybe for individual entities," Munjal said.

Crisil’s managing director and chief executive officer Ashu Suyash said while recovery will be slow it may not match pre-covid levels even in three years.

“We went into the pandemic with slowing consumption and employment being in question. Analysing 40,000 companies across 50 sectors with a wage bill of 12 trillion, we see vulnerability in 52% by size and 68% by number. This is a sharp cut in paycheck. Recovery is going to be slow. Even in three years we are not going to come back to pre-covid levels from the gross domestic product growth (GDP) perspective. We are talking about 10% loss in GDP. By design, this is going to happen in sectors that were vulnerable and have become more vulnerable," he said.

Even Ajay Piramal, chairman of Piramal group, expected a U-shaped recovery with different sectors witnessing consolidation. The concept of Atmanirbhar Bharat needs to be built up in a big way by supporting MSMEs, which have been the largest employers, he said.

Aviation sector is set to see a quick turnaround in the next 18 months, said Ronojoy Dutta, chief executive, IndiGo. Much of the growth will come from lower-end segment as fuel prices fall and airlines cut costs. Data shows that passenger traffic across India is estimated to decline by 45-50% in FY21. International travel will be dependent on lifting of travel restrictions by countries, which is likely to happen in phases, he said.

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