'Token tax' on AI: Why Bill Gates flags job losses, suggests 'human-reserved' jobs

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has issued a stark warning about the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), saying the technology could bring unprecedented disruption to employment and create serious risks to human life.

In an interview with The New York Times, Gates said governments and technology companies must respond more urgently to the risks emerging from increasingly powerful AI systems.

AI industry ‘playing down’ risks

Gates argued that the enormous amount of money being invested in AI may be discouraging industry leaders from openly discussing its potential dangers.

He said people with a deep understanding of the technology are increasingly concerned about how quickly AI capabilities are improving, but executives may be reluctant to voice those fears publicly because it could affect their ability to attract investment.

“In private, people who understand how good this stuff is, and how much better it’s getting, they’re very worried,” he said.

Gates added that some executives fear raising concerns about AI could undermine their efforts to secure further funding.

“They’re now saying to each other: ‘Hey, man, don’t say that. It’s bad for us — the next trillion dollars we’re trying to raise.”

AI could be different from past technological revolutions

Gates said the scale and speed of AI adoption could make its impact fundamentally different from earlier technological advances.

While previous breakthroughs eventually created new employment opportunities after displacing some workers, he warned that AI could spread across so many industries that there may not be enough sectors left to absorb people who lose their jobs.

“The AI era is “utterly, absolutely, completely, totally different,” he said.

He also said the pace of AI development had gone well beyond what he had expected, with companies continuing to push ahead while hoping the benefits will outweigh the potential damage.

“They’re just full speed ahead and hoping that the good outweighs the bad,” he said.

AI coding tools have ‘shocked’ Gates

Gates highlighted the rapid improvement of AI-powered coding tools as a particular source of concern.

Coding is an area in which Gates has extensive experience, and he said the progress made by AI systems, including Claude, had surprised him.

He said he was particularly struck by the possibility that AI systems could now outperform him in areas he had considered his own strength.

“The idea that now these things are in a meaningful sense better than I am is like: What the hell?” he said.

Gates warned that large-scale job displacement could become unavoidable unless governments begin preparing for the consequences of AI-driven automation.

Gates calls for ‘token tax’ on AI

To address the economic impact, Gates has backed stronger government intervention, including a new tax on AI use, sometimes referred to as a “token tax”.

The proposed measure would increase the cost for businesses that use AI to replace human workers. According to Gates, the money raised could then be channelled towards supporting people who lose their jobs because of automation.

He also suggested creating a category of “Human Reserved” jobs that would be protected from AI replacement.

Such roles could include caregiving and other jobs involving deeply personal human interaction, where replacing workers with AI could be particularly difficult or undesirable.

Calls for global AI safety rules

Gates also warned that the risks associated with advanced AI extend beyond employment.

He called for mandatory assessments of AI systems that could potentially be used to design new molecules or facilitate the development of biological weapons.

According to Gates, countries should work towards international agreements establishing clear rules for monitoring and restricting AI systems that could potentially be used for bioterrorism.

He said AI safety had become as important to him as global health and that he intended to discuss the issue with world leaders.

Gates says he is in a ‘state of shock’

Gates expressed frustration that governments and other decision-makers have not responded with greater urgency despite the speed at which AI capabilities are advancing.

He said he was in a “state of shock” over the lack of urgency surrounding the potential consequences of the technology.

“I don’t like bringing bad news to people, and I don’t like saying that innovation may be a net negative,” he said. “But that’s where we are.”