A sugar-coated catastrophe: Groundwater crisis in Uttar Pradesh

Sugar is extracted from sugarcane, a water-guzzling crop that adversely impacts India’s groundwater sustainability. A deep-dive investigation by Mint, backed by interviews with multiple farmers, government officials, and experts, and data crunching from official sources, shows groundwater in Uttar Pradesh is at risk of complete depletion of aquifers within years unless a more sustainable way of producing sugarcane is adopted.

The unsustainable use of groundwater has already pushed major agrarian states like Punjab and Haryana beyond their ability to naturally replenish the water. Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are on track to follow suit. Both leaders in sugarcane production have utilised over 70% of their available groundwater resources, which is deemed as a “semi-critical" level by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB). Seven of India’s top 10 sugarcane-producing districts—in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka—lie in this category.

Water woes

Despite the groundwater crisis, Uttar Pradesh alone has accounted for half of India’s sugar production over the last decade. In the decade to 2023, farmers in Uttar Pradesh extracted over three-fifths of its available groundwater. By 2023, over three out of every 10 blocks in the state had either used up all their groundwater or were at risk of depletion. 

While Uttar Pradesh’s groundwater recharge capacity remained unchanged, sugarcane production surged 70% in this period to 240 million tonnes in 2023, far above the national average of 40% growth. At this rate, the state’s groundwater won’t sustain another decade of intensive cane farming, experts said.

According to a Mint analysis of CGWB data, Uttar Pradesh was India’s largest groundwater extractor in 2023, using as much water as Maharashtra or Rajasthan would use in three years. The volume of water used by Uttar Pradesh could meet the water needs of Bengaluru, a water-scarce city struggling to provide drinking water annually, for the next 48 years.

Shamli and Saharanpur, two of the top 10 sugarcane-producing districts in Uttar Pradesh, are already water-scarce, and their extraction rates exceed more than 100% of their groundwater resources, meaning they are extracting more than can be replenished naturally. This will deplete all the water that has been stored over millions of years, worsening the shortages.

A state government official from the tubewell division of the irrigation and water resources department, on the condition of anonymity, said that in 2023, the water level at one of the sites last checked in Shamli had dropped by over 30 feet in just two to three years.

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 Farmers are also struggling with depleting groundwater but do not seem to understand the scale of the crisis. Interviews with farmers conducted by Mint show they do not see the changes in groundwater levels as alarming yet and are unprepared for what may come if water levels continue to drop at the same rate. 

“We haven’t felt it as a real problem yet, but every two to three years, the water flow decreases, forcing us to dig 10–15 feet deeper," said farmer Bujhveer Singh from Shamli.

Monsoon and misuse

The problem is ancient groundwater cannot be replenished with rainwater alone, said Sudhir Panwar, a professor at the University of Lucknow and a former member of Uttar Pradesh’s Planning Commission.

Venkatraman Srinivasan, a professor at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Madras, concurs. Crop selection must align with regional rainfall patterns, but this is not happening since the average annual precipitation is about 1,000 mm and sugarcane needs more than 2,000 mm, Srinivasan added.

Since the monsoon lasts for about three months in Uttar Pradesh, farmers end up relying on alternative irrigation methods such as canals or groundwater pumps for the rest of the year. However, even canals are insufficient to meet sugarcane’s water demands, leaving farmers with no option but to use tubewells, according to an administrative officer from Uttar Pradesh’s Shamli district, where the crop is dominant. Tubewells are pipes drilled into the ground with a pump to draw the groundwater.

This is where more problem lies. Farmers are permitted to use pumps with up to 10 horsepower but many illegally install higher-capacity motors to extract more water, said the official from the tubewell division. Detecting and preventing this practice is akin to finding a needle in a haystack.

Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject matter.

Yield illusion

While India’s sugarcane crop uses more than double the water than is normal globally, its rising yields and role in the production of ethanol have presented a dichotomy for policymakers. 

Compared to the global average of 57 cubic metres, India uses more than twice (141 cubic metres) the water to grow a tonne of sugarcane. In Uttar Pradesh, growing one tonne of sugarcane requires over a hundred cubic metres of water—equivalent to about four standard 20-foot shipping containers. 

Worse, newer varieties of sugarcane may exacerbate the problem. Uttar Pradesh’s yields—output per unit of cultivated land—improved by one-third over the last decade to 2023. However, groundwater extraction remained in the unsafe category during the same period, CGWB data showed.

 

The increase in yields is partly because of new seed varieties that are highly productive but also water-guzzling. Between 2014 and 2023, Uttar Pradesh increased its sugarcane areas by a fifth but its production jumped by almost 70%, largely due to a new variety called Co 0238. 

It is one of the most successful varieties of cane India has ever developed in terms of yield, which can be over 20 tons per hectare higher than other standard varieties under both water stress and waterlogged conditions. However, several anecdotal accounts suggest this particular variety consumes more water.

Sugar rush

One of the reasons for thriving sugarcane farming is India’s strengthening position as a sugar exporter. India exports sugar to countries halfway across the world, with many in Africa receiving it at a lower price compared to locally produced sugar. This has provided India with both economic and diplomatic power to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the continent. 

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In 2022, India exported over 12 million tonnes of sugar, five times the quantity in 2014. This surge was a result of policy support, bumper harvests and strategic market positioning. Even after an export ban on sugar aimed to contain domestic prices in 2023, sugar exports volume was still twice more than that in 2014.

 

Efforts to rein in unsustainable water use could threaten India's role as a top sugar exporter. For instance, the European Union has introduced the "EU Blue Deal," which could impose restrictions on the import of commodities grown using excessive use of water.

Fretting farmers

While India’s sugar exports have grown, sugarcane has not been too profitable for farmers due to rising input costs.

 "The cost of fertilizers, labour and electricity has risen sharply, but the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) hasn't matched that increase. We're simply not getting what we deserve," said Lokesh Kumar, a sugarcane farmer from the Shamli district of Uttar Pradesh. 

FRP guarantees that sugarcane farmers get the mandated price set by the government from the sugar mills. For 2024-25, the FRP was set at ₹340 per quintal, an increase from ₹230 per quintal in 2016-17.

Some northern sugarcane-growing states like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand also determine their State Advised Price (SAP) which is generally higher than FRP. 

Uttar Pradesh’s SAP is ₹355-370 per quintal, based on the varieties, for 2024-25, higher than the union government’s mandated FRP. However, even the SAP may not be enough. “In 2014, a farmer could buy 10 grams of 24-carat gold by selling around 150 quintals of sugarcane. This is no longer possible," Kumar added, wishing that the FRP or the SAP were over ₹400.

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According to a 2022 report by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi, and the Indian Institute of Sugarcane Research, Lucknow, nearly half the cost of sugarcane production is spent on manual labour, as most tasks, from planting to harvesting, are done by hand. 

The 12-month crop, planted between October and May, requires 250 to 400 labour days per hectare, with mechanisation mostly limited to field preparation before planting. "Rising wages for human labour have significantly increased costs, shrinking profit margins for cane farmers. Without a corresponding rise in profits, farmers may eventually be forced to shift to other crops," said Panwar.

Even if the government is aware of the water crisis caused by sugarcane farming, intervening in the sugar industry can be a risky business. An official from the Sugar Industry and the Cane Development Department, who spoke to Mint on the condition of anonymity, said that the government has signalled its intent to discourage further sugarcane cultivation by not increasing the FRP as requested by the farmers. However, sugarcane farming is an industry and a key vote bank.

"The sugar lobby has strong ties with both the state and union governments, giving them access to the power corridors. As a result, the increase in ethanol production, primarily used for blending with petrol, is dominated by these groups. They can also influence key decision-making," Panwar said. 

A 2024 report by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) documented this entanglement between Indian politics and the sugar industry in Maharashtra, the country’s second-largest sugarcane-producing state. The state's economically powerful sugar cooperatives are often controlled by powerful local politicians who use them to build influence, secure farmer support, and strengthen their political reach, according to the report.

Transition to energy

Farmers have stuck to sugarcane partly due to its growing role in India’s energy landscape. "Sugarcane is no longer just an industrial crop. It is an energy crop," Panwar said. The government's Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme, targeting 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2025, has further boosted demand, especially in major sugarcane-producing states like Uttar Pradesh. However, with four-fifths of India’s ethanol sourced from sugar, leading agrarian states risk irreversible groundwater depletion unless sustainable irrigation methods are adopted.

Ethanol can be produced from either petrochemicals or sugarcane, corn and grains. Those derived from the latter are known as bioethanol or biofuel. Blending ethanol with petrol is proposed as a way to use surplus sugar while achieving energy independence.

Between 2018 and 2019, the government started diverting surplus sugar to ethanol production under the EBP Programme. The effect is evident, as sugar allotted for ethanol production under the programme increased more than tenfold between 2018-19 and 2022-23. By the end of the current cycle, India is likely to produce about one-fifth of the blended petrol ethanol, according to NITI Aayog’s Ethanol Booklet 2023. This would save the country $4 billion a year.

Micro-irrigation and misses

Out of every 10 litres of water that Uttar Pradesh extracts, about nine litres go into irrigating agricultural fields, according to CGWB data. Despite the increasing scarcity of groundwater, the adoption of modern and efficient irrigation methods in Uttar Pradesh remains minimal. 

Farmers flood the fields according to their needs. In nearly all top cane-producing districts, more than 90% of cultivated fields rely on groundwater or supplement irrigation with canals. In Uttar Pradesh, less than 10% of farmland uses alternative irrigation techniques such as micro-irrigation.

In contrast, farmers in other leading cane producers Maharashtra and Karnataka irrigate three out of every 10 hectares with micro-irrigation methods, a Mint analysis of agriculture ministry data showed. 

According to an Indian Institute of Sugarcane Research report, micro-irrigation techniques make water usage highly efficient and boost crop productivity. Unlike traditional irrigation, which often leads to overwatering and significant losses through runoff and evaporation, micro-irrigation delivers water directly to plant roots through a controlled system of pipes, drippers and sprinklers.

This precision not only reduces wasting water but also improves soil moisture balance, leading to healthier, faster-growing plants and increased yields, up to 100% in some cases. When farmers flood their fields, about half of the water is lost, as it either runs off, seeps beyond the roots, or evaporates without being absorbed by the crops. However, the same amount of water, when used with micro-irrigation techniques, can irrigate twice the land. This method targets water directly to the roots, making the irrigation process far more water-efficient.

Low funding

While the government has been promoting micro-irrigation under schemes like Per Drop More Crop (PDMC), its adoption remains low due to the initial investment cost and the lack of awareness. Funds from the PDMC scheme have not trickled down to farmers in Uttar Pradesh, which contributes significantly to India’s agricultural output. 

The state receives a disproportionately lower allocation from this scheme compared to states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. For every 100 hectares of land under the PDMC scheme, Uttar Pradesh’s share is not even five hectares. In comparison, four states— Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh—account for at least 10 hectares each.

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“The southern states, with higher technological adoption rates, have reaped the benefits of programs like PDMC, unlike northern states like Uttar Pradesh, where adoption remains limited. Farmers and other stakeholders need to come together to expedite the adoption process and make cane and other such crops a sustainable agricultural practice," says Panwar.

“Everything is on paper. I don’t recall any official ever explaining alternative irrigation techniques," says Kumar. Local authorities hold weekly chaupals to educate farmers, but scepticism persists. “Even with a 90% subsidy, farmers hesitate to invest," said Panwar, urging the government to set up free pilot projects to prove their benefits.

Even as sugarcane is leading to unsustainable groundwater levels, switching to other crops seems difficult. Alternative crops like rice and maize also require huge amounts of water, while the marketplace is dominated by sugarcane. “There’s no mandi in our district (Shamli) to ensure fair pricing for crops other than sugarcane," says farmer Singh.

Reporting for this story was supported by the Environmental Data Journalism Academy, a programme of Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and Thibi.

Methodology

The author conducted data analysis and interviews to produce this report. Data on the sugarcane area under cultivation, production, and yield, as of the financial year 2023, were scraped from the online dashboard of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. The portal provides detailed data on major crops across the country. To analyze the water footprint of crops, the author referred to UNESCO-IHE’s Value of Water Research Report Series No. 47.

Groundwater usage and management data, including groundwater extraction for irrigation, were scrapped from the Central Ground Water Board’s National Compilation on Dynamic Ground Water Resources of India, 2023. Analysis to identify the top countries importing sugar from India and trends in India's sugar exports was conducted using data obtained from UNComtrade’s trade statistics dashboard.

Data on micro-irrigation was scraped from the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana’s ‘Achievement Report’ Dashboard. The status of micro-irrigation area coverage and the central government’s allocation of funds were obtained from a press release issued by the Press Information Bureau (PIB).

Data analyses were conducted in Google Sheets, and the findings can be viewed through this link.

The author spoke to farmers in the sugarcane belt of Uttar Pradesh to better understand their conditions and challenges to avoid the looming crisis. Interviews were also conducted with government officials, farmers, and subject matter experts to provide additional context and insights for the story. All the government officials the author spoke to wished to remain anonymous.