Budget 2026: Here are the key numbers — From capex to fiscal deficit, revised estimates and more

Budget 2026: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has in the Union Budget 2026 pegged India's fiscal deficit at 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY27, as against 4.4% for FY26.

Speaking in the Lok Sabha on 1 February (Sunday), Sitharaman said, “The government has been delivering on our fiscal commitments consistently without compromising on social needs. To strive towards accepted standards of fiscal management, in Budget 2025-26, I had indicated that the Central Government would target reaching a debt-to-GDP ratio of 50±1% by 2030-31.”

Growth in focus: FM raises government capex target slightly

Highlighting the sustained increase in government capital expenditure (capex) over the years, Sitharaman in her Budget speech proposed to increase the government capex to ₹12.2 lakh crore for FY27 from ₹11.2 lakh crore in FY26.

“Public capex has increased manifold from ₹2 lakh crore in FY14-15 to an allocation of ₹11.2 lakh crore in BE 2025-26. In FY2026-27, I propose to increase it to ₹12.2 lakh crore to continue the momentum,” she said.

According to Crisil, the ₹12.2 lakh crore budget outlay for capital expenditure marks an 8.9% increase over the current fiscal and is in line with expectations, but lower than the likely need.

Here's are the big numbers at a glance

• Sitharaman further added that the debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be 55.6% of GDP in Budget Estimate (BE) 2026-27, compared to 56.1% of GDP in Revised Estimate (RE) 2025-26.

“A declining debt-to-GDP ratio will gradually free up resources for priority sector expenditure by reducing the outgo on interest payments,” she added.

• Further, noting that one of the main operational instruments for debt targeting is the fiscal deficit, she said, “I am happy to inform this House that I have fulfilled my commitment made in FY22 to reduce fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26. In RE 2025-26, the fiscal deficit has been estimated at par with the BE of 2025-26 at 4.4% of GDP.”
• Keeping with the new fiscal prudence path of debt consolidation, she added, the fiscal deficit in BE 2026-27 is estimated to be 4.3% of GDP.
• Fiscal deficit in absolute terms works out to be ₹16,95,768 crore for FY27.

Government debt-to-GDP ratio: How do the numbers fare?

The general government debt-to-GDP ratio was 85% in 2024, which included central government debt of 57%, as per a PTI report.

The Centre has committed to keep fiscal deficit in each year (from FY27 to FY31) such that its debt is on a declining path to attain a debt-to-GDP level of about 50±1% by March 31, 2031, from the current level of 55.6%.

A fiscal deficit of 3-4% is considered comfortable and a desirable target for a growing, developing economy like India, aiming to balance economic expansion with financial stability, the report added.

Further, Basant Bafna, head of fixed income at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) told Mint that the net market borrowing of ₹11.7 lakh crores “is broadly in line with market expectations”.

What are the Revised Estimates 2025-26?

• The Revised Estimates of the non-debt receipts are ₹34 lakh crore of which the Centre’s net tax receipts are ₹26.7 lakh crore.
• The Revised Estimate of the total expenditure is ₹49.6 lakh crore, of which the capital expenditure is about ₹11 lakh crore.

What are the Budget Estimates 2026-27?

• Coming to 2026-27, the non-debt receipts and the total expenditure are estimated as ₹36.5 lakh crore and ₹53.5 lakh crore respectively.
• The Centre’s net tax receipts are estimated at ₹28.7 lakh crore.
• To finance the fiscal deficit, the net market borrowings from dated securities are estimated at ₹11.7 lakh crore.
• The balance financing is expected to come from small savings and other sources. The gross market borrowings are estimated at ₹17.2 lakh crore.
• The non-debt receipts and the total expenditure are estimated as ₹36.5 lakh crore and ₹53.5 lakh crore, respectively. The Centre's net tax receipts are estimated at ₹28.7 lakh crore.