China’s export machine is powering ahead even as the US tries to slow it down. Despite some of the steepest tariffs ever imposed by Washington, Chinese exports kept rising this year—and by end-November, the country’s trade surplus crossed $1 trillion for the first time.
Mint breaks down how Beijing managed this feat and what it means for India and the world economy.
How are China’s exports faring?
China’s outbound shipments have proved remarkably resilient. In the first 11 months of 2025, exports grew 5.7% even with average US tariffs at 47.5%. Sales to the US slumped 18%, but Chinese manufacturers more than made up for it elsewhere: exports to Europe climbed 9%, while shipments to Southeast Asia and Africa surged 15% and 27%, respectively.
Are these goods being re-routed to the US?
Largely, yes. Goldman Sachs estimates that about 70% of China’s additional exports to Southeast Asia this year eventually ended up in the US, routed through third-world countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Why are China’s imports sluggish?
Imports have barely budged. November saw just a 1.9% increase as the domestic economy remained weighed down by a deep property slump, weak household balance sheets, and depressed consumer sentiment. Youth unemployment has worsened the drag. With demand soft at home, factory activity contracted for eight straight months through November.
That weakness fed directly into import volumes, and helped China build a record $1.08 trillion trade surplus over the January-November period.
Why is the IMF worried?
Because China is leaning even harder on an old playbook. The IMF has cautioned that the country’s size makes an export-first strategy risky and likely to exacerbate global trade tensions. It has urged Beijing to revive consumption, warning that growth cannot rest overwhelmingly on foreign demand.
Chinese leaders publicly agree, but policy efforts have repeatedly fallen short. Once again this year, China is on track to hit its 5% growth target largely because exports are doing the heavy lifting.
Is China’s domestic crisis powering its exports?
Yes—and in ways that make its products even harder to compete against. Weak demand at home has collided with massive industrial overcapacity, forcing firms into price wars that have driven factory-gate prices down for 38 consecutive months. That domestic deflation has made Chinese goods cheaper globally.
Meanwhile, China’s efforts to counter deflation have kept interest rates low, weakening the yuan and adding another layer of export competitiveness. With exports serving as a crucial lifeline, Beijing is in no hurry to ignite a full-throated domestic rebound.
How does this affect India and other countries?
The spillover is already visible. A flood of low-cost Chinese goods is squeezing manufacturers around the world. Indian sectors including steel, rubber and chemicals have sought—and secured—anti-dumping duties to blunt the impact of predatory pricing. Europe is also pushing back: during his recent visit to Beijing, French President Emmanuel Macron warned Chinese officials that more tariffs could follow if dumping persists.
Such measures may become routine. Morgan Stanley expects China’s share of global exports to rise from 15% today to 16.5% by 2030, tightening competitive pressure on trading partners for years to come.