Cong again questions India's ‘chest-thumping’ 7.8% GDP growth, demands answers on ₹43 lakh crore revision

The Congress party on 3 September once again raised questions on the latest GDP figures released by the government earlier this week. The opposition party asked why there was a substantial downward revision in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the last four years and sought a detailed account of how this revision was done.

The opposition party also asked what methodology was adopted by the government to bring this revision while seeking an explanation for the reduction of ₹43 lakh crore in the estimated size of the economy.

This comes after Congress party cited criticism by former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg on GDP numbers to attack the government, saying it must understand that ‘PR can polish the picture’ of GDP but not the economy itself.

India's economy grew at a faster-than-expected 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter, showing resilience in the face of concerns that the war in Iran and resulting global economic uncertainty could weigh on growth.

Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh, in a statement on Thursday, posed a set of four questions to the government on what it said is the growing evidence of "irregularities" in the just-released GDP figures.

Ramesh said the Modi government has been telling people that India's economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June 2026 quarter, and predictably, there has been a fair bit of "chest-thumping" about it.

But if one actually sits down and looks at how this number was arrived at, the whole thing starts looking rather shaky, the Congress leader claimed.

Ramesh, a former Union Minister, said to calculate any growth rate, one needed last year's GDP figure to compare against. “Now, the figure for the previous April-June 2025 quarter has been revised not once but four times from around ₹86 lakh crore to about ₹80 lakh crore. And here's the catch: if you keep shrinking the base you're comparing against, this year's number will automatically look much bigger than it really is, even if nothing has actually changed on the ground. That is simple arithmetic, not economic growth.”

Ramesh again cited Garg's recent remarks. Garg, who was the former foreign secretary before taking voluntary retirement from service in 2019, hogged headlines when he said that GDP growth would have been just about 2.6 per cent in current prices if last year's GDP had not been revised down from roughly ₹86 lakh crore to ₹80 lakh crore.

"Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg raised exactly this point. According to his calculation, if the base year hadn't been revised down the way it was, nominal growth this quarter would be closer to 2.6 per cent, not the 10.3 per cent the government is claiming. And once you take inflation out of that, real growth is basically zero, nowhere near 7.8 per cent," Ramesh said in the statement shared on X.

‘Four years of GDP overreporting’

The Congress leader accused the Modi government of four years of GDP overreporting and added that the issue was much larger as the government has not just revised down the figure for the April-June 25 quarter, but for all four years since FY2022-23.

The ‘new series’ has reduced the nominal GDP figure for every year and almost every quarter of the four years, and it has gone down by ₹8-12 lakh crore each year.

"This means we have been overreporting our GDP for the last 4 years," he alleged.

Taken together, the GDP has been revised down by ₹43 lakh crore across 4 years, which Ramesh alleged is a very large correction.

"The implication is that an excess of goods and services valued at ₹43 lakh crore had been included in the GDP and has now been removed. The government must provide an explanation for this. How has a change in methodology produced such a large drop in the estimated size of the Indian economy?" he asked.

What are the 4 questions?

Ramesh said that the Modi government must answer 4 straight questions.

"Why was there such a substantial downward revision in the GDP estimates for all 4 years? What is the explanation for an aggregate reduction of ₹43 lakh crore in the estimated size of India's economy?

"What are the components of the new methodology that have driven such a shift? The government must provide a detailed account of how this revision was done," he asked.

Asking what process was followed to develop the new methodology, he said, "Who was consulted and what was the basis for adoption of different components? What is the rationale for a deflation method that reduces the impact of inflation in real GDP calculation?"

Citing Garg's criticism, Ramesh said the government's new numbers look "shakiest" in two areas: manufacturing and consumption.

"According to Mr. Garg's calculations, manufacturing GVA has actually shrunk by 5.2 per cent compared to last year, while private consumption has fallen by 5.4 per cent. Independent indicators confirm his assessment," he said.

Noting that this is also not the first time such doubts have been raised about India's GDP data, the Congress leader said former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian has pointed out that growth was actually underestimated during the 2005-2011 boom years, but has been consistently overestimated since the methodology and base year were changed in 2011-12.

“Taken together previous years' GDP being drastically revised downward, a deflator that is completely out of step with what people are actually paying at the market. And a fairly long history of economists and now even the IMF flagging concerns about the data itself there is more than enough reason to ask whether this growth figure reflects reality, or whether it is simply a case of the arithmetic being made to work in the government's favour,” he said.

(With inputs from agencies)