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Home / Economy / The week that was: GDP forecasts, oil prices, PSB recapitalization

Every week, Plain Facts publishes a compilation of data-based insights—complete with easy-to-read visual charts—to help you delve deeper into the stories reported by Mint. This week we look at the GDP growth projection for October-December, the surge in oil prices due to the Ukraine crisis and its impact on India, and the government’s plan to infuse money into state-run banks. Here’s all you need to know:

Steady Growth

India's economy is expected to have grown at a steady pace in October-December, with foreign brokerage Barclays projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.6%. The economy grew 8.4% in July-September and 20.1% in Q1FY22. While growth is expected to be lower compared with the previous two quarters due to the fading base effect, the economic momentum continued during the third quarter . The government is set to release the data on Monday.

GDP growth, year-on-year( in %)
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GDP growth, year-on-year( in %)

Crude Development

The geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have put crude oil prices on fire. The prices topped $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since 2014 after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced military action in Eastern Ukraine. While India may not escape the effects of rising crude oil prices, low reliance on Russian crude imports could insulate the country from the severe impact of European and US sanctions on Russia.

Share in India's crude oil imports (in %)
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Share in India's crude oil imports (in %)

Fund Infusion

15,000 crore: That's the amount the government is likely to infuse into state-run banks in the second half of March to help the lenders meet tighter capital-reserve requirements, Mint reported. Punjab and Sind Bank and Central Bank of India, the two banks still facing lending curbs, are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. The government has infused more than 3.1 trillion since FY17 as several banks faced risks following the disclosure of huge amounts of bad loans.

Flying High

Ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-backed low-cost carrier Akasa Air is set to launch this summer. There are several budget airlines operating in India, including IndiGo, SpiceJet, and GoFirst. Latest data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation show IndiGo is the biggest market player among low-cost carriers, far ahead of SpiceJet. Air India is third. Going forward, it is to be seen whether the arrival of Akasa and the privatization of Air India will change the Indian aviation market.

Domestic market share (in %)
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Domestic market share (in %)

Household Crises

Even as the economy is steadily recovering, households are reeling under crises caused by covid-19. The latest ‘Hunger Watch’ survey, conducted between December and January, found that 79% Indian households across 14 states reported some form of food insecurity in 2021. One-third of the households also reported a decline in income compared with pre-pandemic levels. The survey was conducted by a group of organizations under the Right to Food Campaign.

Respondents who experienced the following (in %)
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Respondents who experienced the following (in %)

IPO Beckons

6,250 crore: That is the amount API Holdings, the parent of PharmEasy, plans to raise via an initial public offering (IPO).The company had filed its draft prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India in November, but market volatility posed concerns before the regulator’s approval. The IPO will be a primary share sale. Of the sum, the company will use 1,929 crore to repay or prepay debt, and 1,259 crore to fund its organic growth.

Leading The Pack

Despite the spread of Omicron, economic recovery remained strong in January, putting India at the top of Mint’s emerging markets (EM) tracker for the third straight month. To be sure, Omicron was milder than Delta and caused negligible damage even as some states announced lockdowns. India had an advantage over other countries in terms of significant expansion in manufacturing activity, range-bound inflation, relatively better stock market performance, and valuation worries.

Chart 5
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Chart 5

Chart Of The Week: News Tastes

Chart Of The Week: News Tastes
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Chart Of The Week: News Tastes

According to the YouGov-Mint-CPR survey, supporters of political parties rely primarily on TV news (30-31%), while apolitical people tend to get news from social media feeds (38%). Across groups, newspapers were preferred by 23–25% people.

Follow us on #MintCharts (https://twitter.com/hashtag/MintCharts) on Twitter and subscribe to Mint’s Top of the Morning newsletter (https://www.livemint.com/newsletters) for our Chart of the Day.

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