'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini predicts 10% economic growth by 2050—but says AI will replace many jobs

Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, who gained the nickname "Dr. Doom" after accurately warning about the 2008 global financial crisis, is taking a notably optimistic stance on artificial intelligence despite widespread fears about its disruptive impact.

Nouriel Roubini says AI will reshape jobs and retirement

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday, Roubini discussed the future of Social Security, whose trust fund is projected to run short of money by 2032. He argued that simply increasing the retirement age will not solve the problem because AI and robotics are likely to replace a significant share of the workforce over the next two to three decades.

According to Roubini, the rapid adoption of AI will fundamentally reshape labor markets, making traditional policy solutions inadequate. Instead, governments will eventually need to rethink how income is distributed in an economy where machines perform much of today's human work.

“Eventually, we need some form of universal basic income for everybody while they work and once they retire,” Roubini said. “We’re already on the way.”

Why Roubini believes universal basic income is inevitable

The prospect of AI-driven job displacement has already fueled debate over universal basic income (UBI). OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has previously suggested that governments could provide citizens with guaranteed payments to cushion the effects of automation, although he has since softened his position.

Even so, the concept continues to gain attention. Earlier this year, the U.K.'s investment minister said the government is exploring universal basic income as a possible safety net for workers whose jobs may be threatened by advances in artificial intelligence.

AI could drive 10% economic growth, predicts Roubini

Nouriel Roubini believes AI represents the most significant technological revolution in human history and expects it to evolve into artificial general intelligence (AGI), where machines equal or surpass human cognitive abilities across a broad range of tasks.

Roubini predicts that such advances will unleash a dramatic surge in economic productivity. In his forecast, annual GDP growth could rise from today's 2%-4% range to about 6% by 2040 before accelerating to nearly 10% by 2050. That stronger growth, he argued, would give governments greater capacity to tax the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom and redistribute wealth across society.

Roubini on taxing Big Tech, redistributing AI wealth

“We’ll have either ex-post distribution—that is universal basic income—or we’ll have it ex-ante. Ex-ante means some form of socialism,” Roubini explained. “Essentially, the government is going to take over some fraction of the big tech firms.”

Roubini also noted that some AI companies appear open to sharing the gains from the technology. He referenced a Financial Times report stating that OpenAI has explored the idea of allocating a 5% stake to the government, allowing the public to benefit directly from AI-driven value creation.

The proposal, championed by Altman, would ideally see other AI companies adopt similar arrangements, though it remains uncertain whether competing U.S. firms would support such a model.

Why 'Dr. Doom' is optimistic about AI's future

Given these trends, Roubini said some form of universal basic income—or a system resembling greater wealth redistribution—is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid.

“We’re going already in that direction, effectively,” he said.

Rejecting suggestions that his outlook is pessimistic, Roubini described it as highly optimistic. He argued that a future featuring 10% economic growth and machines performing most forms of labor would represent an unprecedented leap in prosperity rather than a crisis.

His vision aligns closely with comments made by Elon Musk, who has repeatedly predicted that advances in AI and robotics will make work optional within the next two decades, allowing people to choose employment rather than depend on it for survival.