Economic Survey projects GDP growth at 6-6.8% for FY24, slowest in three years
1 min read . Updated: 31 Jan 2023, 02:59 PM IST
PremiumIMF has projected India to be the fastest-growing major economy in FY24, retaining the forecast at 6.1% in its latest World Economic Outlook, citing “resilient” domestic demand despite a challenging external environment
New Delhi: India on Tuesday forecast its economy will grow 6% to 6.8% in the next financial year starting 1 April, down from 7% growth projected for the current year, according to the Economic Survey tabled in the Parliament. At the projected rate, growth will be the slowest in three years.
Slowing demand will likely push down global commodity prices and improve India’s current account deficit (CAD) in FY24, the Survey said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India to be the fastest-growing major economy in FY24, retaining the forecast at 6.1% in its latest World Economic Outlook, citing “resilient" domestic demand despite a challenging external environment. India’s National Statistical Office earlier this month projected the economy to expand by 7% in 2022-23, as per the first advanced estimates.
“The survey projects a baseline GDP growth of 6.5% in real terms in FY24. The projection is broadly comparable to the estimates provided by multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the ADB and by RBI, domestically. The actual outcome for real GDP growth will probably lie in the range of 6% to 6.8%, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally," the Survey said.
According to the Economic Survey, for FY23, India’s current account deficit (CAD) may continue to widen as global commodity prices remain elevated. However, the country’s economy remains strong, it said.
The Survey said that India has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to finance CAD and intervene in the forex market to manage volatility in the rupee. It also points at visible incipient signs of a new private capital formation cycle.
India has made a relatively speedy recovery post pandemic, and in FY24, capital investment and strong domestic demand will boost growth, the Economic Survey noted.
The survey, tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget on Wednesday, is the government’s review of how the economy fared in the past year.
