El Nino is typically linked to weaker rains and slower farm activity. To make matters worse, the prevailing weather pattern could also leave India's power sector with less wind to work with this year. Lower wind speeds during the peak June-September season are expected to weigh on wind power generation, just as India's electricity demand is projected to hit a record high, according to three officials in the government and the industry. And this comes at a time when low rains are already putting pressure on hydel power output.
The risk is significant for India, where wind power accounts for 56.8 gigawatts (GW), or over a tenth of the country’s total installed power generation capacity of 520GW. It also comes at a time when the power sector is already under pressure. Hydro power generation has been hit by a weaker monsoon, while the Central Electricity Authority has projected a record peak power demand of 272GW this year, after demand touched an all-time high of 270.8GW in May.
The country's wind sector, meanwhile, continues to grapple with land acquisition hurdles, right-of-way issues, squatters on high wind-potential sites, lack of grid connectivity, unsigned power purchase agreements (PPAs), and challenges in scheduling and forecasting wind energy.
"The key wind power generating states, including Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, may witness less rains and wind this monsoon. So, in regions where the CUF (capacity utilization factor) is usually about 38%, we may see a decline to 31% in the coming months," said one of the officials mentioned above. In the power sector, capacity utilization factor refers to the measurement of the actual energy output of a power plant compared to its full capacity.
Another official said that in case wind power output got hit, India's thermal, or coal, power generation will have to be ramped up to to meet the country's summer demand.
According to scientists, this year's El Nino, the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is significantly altering global wind patterns. Climate experts say the phenomenon weakens atmospheric circulation, leading to reduced wind speeds across several regions, including parts of Asia, Australia, and South America.
Sanjeev Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Hexa Climate, a renewable energy company said: “The historical pattern is undeniable—strong El Niño years, such as 1997-98 and 2015-16—saw measurable reductions in wind power density across most Indian wind corridors. With a strong-to-super El Nino now developing and expected to intensify through August to October, it arrives precisely when our grid demand peaks."
Aggarwal said this timing is the critical problem: “We are looking at a scenario where power generation dips and demand spikes are happening simultaneously.” This compounding effect is the "real red flag" for grid planners, he said. “Hydro reservoirs are filling slower, wind generation is softening, and as a result, thermal plants—many already running at high utilization—are forced to become the absolute buffer. That raises fuel costs and grid stress simultaneously," said Aggarwal.
Queries on the issue emailed to the ministry of new and renewable energy on Sunday remained unanswered until press time.
Srivatsan Iyer, global chief executive officer of Hero Future Energies said the El Nino years have historically coincided with weaker monsoon winds, and since June-September is peak generation season for Indian wind assets, output can moderate during these phases.
"This does add pressure to the broader energy basket and the grid leans harder on thermal, which itself faces water-cooling constraints in a hot, dry year. That's the real vulnerability: multiple sources stressed at once, not just one," Iyer said.
Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at the University of Maryland and visiting professor at the Kotak School for Sustainability, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, explained that if there is no rain, the winds don't pick up. "So, it's not that winds are weaker, it's that there's no pull on the winds from the monsoon heating. That's why we get weaker winds, which can impact the wind power generation," he said.
On 30 June, the India Meteorological Department said India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July, at less than 94% of the long-period average. India saw its driest June in over a decade, and the fifth-driest since recordkeeping began in 1901, with the crucial south-west monsoon rainfall at 39.8% below normal.
Some experts, however, said it is difficult to draw a direct correlation between a low-rain season and a fall in wind speed and power output.
M.P. Ramesh, former executive director at the National Institute of Wind Energy under the ministry of new and renewable energy, said variations in wind and their impact on power generation are not always measurable. “Quantification is difficult. This year, there is a prediction of lower rainfall. But this does not mean a commensurate fall in wind speed and power generation, he said. ”It can go both ways, wind speed may increase or even fall significantly. Wind power generation is generally high during monsoon starting from May to September; 2019 was a year when we had witnessed a wind drought."
Akshay Hiranandani, chief executive at Serentica Renewables, a renewable energy firm, said it would be premature to assess the precise impact of El Nino on wind power generation at this stage, as the weather conditions and their implications are yet to fully unfold.
“While some forecasts indicate that El Nino could affect monsoon patterns and, consequently, the wind resource availability in certain regions, the extent of the impact will become clearer only over time and will depend on the severity and duration of the phenomenon,” Hiranandani said, adding that the industry will continue to closely monitor developments as the season progresses.
A new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air has said this year's El Nino will hit India's energy system harder than anywhere else, a Press Trust of India report said on Monday.